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[charleston_hugo_veteran]

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Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 6, 2004 6:05 a.m.


FRANCES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO

Tropical Storm Frances as of 5:00 a.m. EDT Monday morning is centered at 28.7 north and 83.5 west, packing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph with gusts to 80 mph, and moving to the west-northwest near 12 mph. It can strengthen back to hurricane status Monday, and hurricane warnings have been issued along the Gulf coast of Florida. Frances will come ashore again over the Florida panhandle later Monday afternoon. Torrential rainfall will continue over parts of northern and central Florida and spread into southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama Monday. Storm total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches will be common, and there will be widespread flooding. In addition to the rain, tornadoes are possible over northern and central parts of Florida into southern Georgia. Winds gusting 60-70 mph will occur near the center of Frances especially in squalls, and gusts past 60 mph can still occur over northern parts of the east and west coast of Florida through Monday morning. A storm surge of 3-6 feet will develop along the northwest Florida coast as the storm approaches, with 1-3 feet over the rest of the west coast of the state.


A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northwest Gulf Coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island northwest to Destin. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the east coast of Florida from Cocoa Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Englewood.


Looking further into the future, Frances will move up through the Florida panhandle Monday night, then north to northwestward into Alabama, then Tennessee. Flooding rains will likely accompany the storm through this region, as will the threat for tornadoes near and east of the center. The winds will diminish, however, as the storm moves northward.(p/>

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Monday, Ivan, the 5th hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic season, was centered at 10.8 north, 51.6 west, or about 550 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The storm after been rapidly strengthening to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale has weakened some overnight to a category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph. The storm is moving to the west-northwest near 23 mph and this movement should continue to over the next couple of days. in strength is expected and hurricane will regain a category 4 strength over the next couple of days. By the end of the week, Ivan is expected to be in the north-central Caribbean, and there is some uncertainty in where the storm would track from there.

We're still monitoring two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located at 26 north and 46 west a little more than a thousand miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 28 north and 28 west or 1,150 miles southwest of the Azores. Both features still have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. This shear might relax over both and there is some chance both features could become organized tropical systems within the next day or two.

[jabber]

For all who wanted a bzy season.... here it is.

[x-y-no]

For all who wanted a bzy season.... here it is.

yep ... we're living in a Chinese curse (interesting times) :-/