AFD NWS Tampa

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 070700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP AS THE INFLUENCE OF FRANCES WILL KEEP A STRONGER
SWRLY FLOW OVER US. THIS WILL PULL IN MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AND
COMBINE WITH SOME CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR TO KEEP NUMEROUS
TSTMS MOVING INLAND OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WENT WITH
LESS COVERAGE DOWN SOUTH...BUT STILL HIGH-END SCT. WILL MAINTAIN
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 PM TODAY AS ANY AREA THAT GETS RAIN COULD
QUICKLY FLOOD WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
DECIDE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

FOR WED...HAVE MORE OF A SW/SRLY FLOW AS RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW'S AOA 1.9 INCHES. CLIMO POPS ARE AROUND 40 PCT
CENTRAL AND NORTH AND 50 PCT DOWN SOUTH. WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE THIS
BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER PW'S...AND ESPECIALLY UP NORTH WHERE MAY STILL
HAVE SOME CONTINUED BANDING FROM THE REMNANT FRANCES. WITH THE
SWRLY FLOW...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY AS
ANY THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS CAN MOVE ASHORE IN THE
MORNING.

SRLY FLOW CONTINUES ON THU...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHER PW'S. WILL
GO WITH HIGH-END SCT POPS ALL LOCATIONS...BASICALLY TRENDING BACK TO
CLIMO.

FOR MAX TEMPS EACH DAY AS WE GET OUT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM
FRANCES. HAVE AREA BACK TO AROUND 90 BY THU AFTN. FOR MIN TEMPS...
WENT WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
IN WARM MARINE AIR.

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS REMAINS OF FRANCES MOVE
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH DAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS AT THIS TIME. FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN AS MODELS
BRING HURRICANE IVAN WEST NORTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
CUBA WITH SOME THEN TURNING IT NORTH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AS FRANCES PULLS FURTHER
INLAND. RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAKE FOR BETTER BOATING WEATHER...ASIDE FROM THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL COME DOWN AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL EXPECT RH VALUES TO BE WELL ABOVE
THRESHOLD CRITERIA...AS SFC STILL SOAKED FROM LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 78 89 76 / 60 40 50 20
FMY 88 77 89 74 / 50 20 60 20
GIF 88 75 89 73 / 50 20 50 20
SRQ 87 77 89 76 / 50 40 60 20
BKV 86 76 88 71 / 70 30 60 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS TODAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...PRC