new ivan forecast... 125KT near cuba in 5 days

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


This will soon go right over st vincent, only hope everyone is ready

[Anonymous]

Quite disorganized????

[Derek Ortt]

for a cat 3, the CDO is looking pitiful and the eye is not as distinct as it should be

[Patrick]

Derek thank you for all your good work. Can you give your thoughts on this part of the NHC's discussion?

THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY
OUTLIER AT 96HR AND 120HR BY TAKING IVAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ...
INCLUDING THE UKMET...GRADUALLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE
HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS THAT SHOULD ACT TO BLOCK ANY WESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.

[Hurricanehink]

Good forecast Derek. I just hope the islands are alright on this one...

[Thunder44]

It looks better than it did earlier this morning though.

[x-y-no]

My concern is that you may be a little fast - you've got him averaging 16.7 knots the first 24 hours, and about 14.6 knots for the next 48 hours. If he's slower that would shift the track to the right.

[Derek Ortt]

seems to be model conjecture more than anything

[ColinD]

for a cat 3, the CDO is looking pitiful and the eye is not as distinct as it should be

A voice of reason. Looking better but still not all that great.

[canegrl04]

Once he gets away from the SA coast ,he will be looking quite better

[PTrackerLA]

Derek thank you for all your good work. Can you give your thoughts on this part of the NHC's discussion?

THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY
OUTLIER AT 96HR AND 120HR BY TAKING IVAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ...
INCLUDING THE UKMET...GRADUALLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE
HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS THAT SHOULD ACT TO BLOCK ANY WESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.

Well that makes it sound like the central and west GOM won't be threatened by Ivan. Hopefully they are right. I can't believe this is another threat to Florida, what have y'all done down there?!

[Derek Ortt]

Thats only model conjecture, which is usually so far in right field this far out.

There is a reason why the mdoels keep shifting to the left, they always bring TC's too far north initially. This is looking like a CGOM storm

[patsmsg]

Thanks for the information, Derek.

Now for a newbie question. Why does an UL to the west indicate a slower westward motion? Is it due to shearing? I would have guessed - and it would be totally a guess, because I don't know - it would speed up toward the low pressure. (I always picture high pressure like a wall and low pressure like a valley.)

Just seeking to learn. I find this all very interesting.

[Derek Ortt]

The UL will provide a counter steering flow more to the north; thus, the opposing forces will result in a slower motion to the WNW

[CaneCurious]

Derek, you said it is looking like a CGOM storm. I truly respect your predictions and opinions. I am in New Orleans so do I have something to worry about? I know it is too early to say for certain but is there any fronts or troughs coming down to steer her away from us?

[Derek Ortt]

All I can say is monitor this very closely over the next few days.

I am ebcoming more and more confident that this is not going to be a Peninsula storm (regardless as to what GFS spews)

[patsmsg]

That makes sense - you have to look at ALL of the forces being applied. I had no thought of counter-steering in my mind.

Thanks for your help.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Derek, you said it is looking like a CGOM storm. I truly respect your predictions and opinions. I am in New Orleans so do I have something to worry about? I know it is too early to say for certain but is there any fronts or troughs coming down to steer her away from us?

Hey Cane. This thing is still a long way from any US landfall. It will be a miracle if any forecast holds 100% through 5-7 days, so no, we don't have anything to worry about....yet. Just something to keep an eye on.

[CaneCurious]

Just a little nervous because my neighbor came over last night and asked us what our evacuation plan was. We do have one but she said that she just has a bad feeling about this one. My brother-in-law called shortly after and said the same thing. That made me uneasy because my brother-in-law always says "stop worrying, it isn't coming here."

[Anonymous]

for a cat 3, the CDO is looking pitiful and the eye is not as distinct as it should be

120 mph... I knew this mofo was strengthening.