12Z Model Analysis...You Wont Get This Elsewhere

[MWatkins]

I was actually going to hang on to this information until the show tonight...and I will go over it there too...but here is some model information you won't get elsewhere. Well you might...and I could be completely off with this analysis...but here it goes.

First of all...it looks like the GFS is a little south with Ivan through the first part of the period...since Ivan is already moving a little north of due west (how else could it be a threat to Grenada...which sits just above 12N).

12Z Nogaps...on the other hand...is a little too far north with Ivan taking it up near 15/70 in two days.

However...both of these models ultimately agree that Ivan won't make it past 82W...but how they get there differ. The GFS takes Ivan south of Jamaica...then turns it NNW and N over Cuba before bringing Ivan near FL then stalling it...the NOGAPS is a little to the north and more gradual with the turn which basically involves running the hurricane up the spine of the state.

After carefully looking at the 00z models I think I have found the reason that the UKMET is not in agreement with these models.

All three global models agree that a piece of energy from the central Atlantic will cut off and develop a closed 500MB low within the next 2 days or so. The models also agree that the low will retrograde back to the west. Here is where they disagree. NOGAPS and GFS ultimately seem to use this low to help nose the 500MB ridge away from FL...causing the N turn in combination with the trough dropping down. The NOGAPS is furthest west with this low in 120 hours...and the GFS isn't far behind. However...looking at the 0Z UKMET it hangs the low back near 30/60 and does not seem to impact the ridge as much...allowing for more WNW motion with the hurricane than the other two models.

There are some disagreements with the trough itself...but that will be a litte eaiser to diagnose as we get closer to turn time.

So to me there are 2 things to watch...

1. If Ivan gets close to 15N at 70W...the chances if it running past Cuba are small.

2. Watch the low forecast to develop over the Atlantic...and wait to see if will tag-team the ridge with the trough.

MW

[bigmike]

So I guess what you're saying MW that this is not a gom event? Also a big threat to south fla if this materializes. I'm a newbie so please bear with me on the silly question. Good analysis.

[Portastorm]

Mike, I sure do appreciate and enjoy your posts. You always educate us and give us things to watch for. Thanks a bunch!

[x-y-no]

Very interesting. Thanks.

[Weeks Bay]

HOPE WHAT YOUR SAYING IS TRUE.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

smart ass comment joke edited

[NorthGaWeather]

GFS seems to be trending towards a stronger ridge from 00z to 12z.

[mascpa]

Excellent analysis, as usual Mike. We'll be watching those two things very closely. I still have no electricity, phone or water at my house in Jupiter Farms thanks to Frances. I certainly don't want to have to deal with Ivan ... but I'm leaving most of my shutters up just in case.

[NorthGaWeather]

It too far out to say but I'm thinking this is a Gulf strom and may follow a track very similar to the UKMET.

[x-y-no]

wont get it elsewshwere, except me on teamspeak 2 days ago

Wow ... you were analyzing today's 0Z and 12Z runs two days ago? I'm impressed.

[MWatkins]

wont get it elsewshwere, except me on teamspeak 2 days ago

Sorry about that...couple of things....

1. Don't know who you are in TS...

2. Haven't been in TS for 2 days and don't recall hearing anything like this since.

3. Check the first paragraph again.

4. I checked the model runs from 2 days ago through 12Z since the 0Z runs 2 days ago weren't out until after 2am. The solution for this COL was completely different then so I find it difficult that we could be discussing the exact same feature...although your synoptic ideas may have been similar to this? I don't really know.

If you did make that point I'm not ripping your analysis...I can assure you. If you want to expand on it go please ahead.

MW

[Rainband]

wont get it elsewshwere, except me on teamspeak 2 days ago

Mike is a respected forecaster so show him some respect.

[JTD]

wont get it elsewshwere, except me on teamspeak 2 days ago

Sorry about that...couple of things....

1. Don't know who you are in TS...

2. Haven't been in TS for 2 days and don't recall hearing anything like this since.

3. Check the first paragraph again.

4. I checked the model runs from 2 days ago through 12Z since the 0Z runs 2 days ago weren't out until after 2am. The solution for this COL was completely different then so I find it difficult that we could be discussing the exact same feature...although your synoptic ideas may have been similar to this? I don't really know.

If you did make that point I'm not ripping your analysis...I can assure you. If you want to expand on it go please ahead.

MW

Mike, I just used this quote because it was the last post you made.

My question is entirely different, however. My question is this: are you thinking this morning that we have a fish for CONUS? Or is that too hopeful of a statement?

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

I'm not trying to be a smarty pants. Infact, I shouldn't even be chatting here. I like to read here rather than post, so i'll just keep my mouth shut. I'll go now.

[tronbunny]

MW,
I just read the CPC 6-10 day outlook. I know it's 24hrs old. Can you clarify this statement for us newbies and tie it in again to your analysis.
"AND MODESTLY BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S..
THE 0Z GFS - 6Z GFS - AND THE ECMWF ALL HAD A DEEPER TROUGH FORECAST
OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S...AND RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEA-
BOARD. "
Thank you so much for your analysis and help for us to understand the interactions of the ridges and troughs.