1724 UTC [12:24 PM CDT]
CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME TO 1724 UTC AT 1825 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES (06L) VERIFICATION
My personal forecasts for Frances were quite accurate. I just 5-20 Miles S of the point of landfall on the east coast, and I was off on intensity by a mean of 20-30 KT. My western panhandle forecast did not verify, however, leaving me to a 60-80 Mile Error in the track forecast in the Gulf...and off on intensity by 15 KT. Not the best forecast I have ever made, but the track forecast approaching the EC was quite good.
HURRICANE IVAN (09L)
Hurricane Ivan has once again started a strengthening phase, although more gradual like Frances. The SAL that invaded the system earlier seems to be clear of it, so any weakening from here on would only be due to being too close to South America or ERCs. An area of light to moderate shear will affect Ivan for a little while, causing a leveling off of strengthening...but rapid weakening is not expected. Ivan has slowed considerably since yesterday's 24 mph, which was expected. Strength Forecast: Expect a leveling off in strengthening in 24 hours, followed by continued strengthening in 48 hours. See Wind Intensity forecast below. Position Forecast: Ivan should continue W, then begin a WNW motion (285 degrees or higher) in about 24 hours. This motion should continue through 96 hours, where a more NW motion is expected into the SE GOM on day 6. People in the following locations should closely monitor the progress of Ivan:
LOCATION / POSSIBLE TIME OF LANDFALL
TOBAGO, GRENADA, ST VINCENT 07.09 TUE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES 08-09.09 WED/THU
JAMAICA 09.09-10.09 THU/FRI
CAYMAN ISLANDS 10.09-11.09 FRI/SAT
WESTERN CUBA 11.09-12.09 SAT/SUN
W COAST OF FLORIDA 13-14.09 SUN/MON
NW FL, S AL, S MS, E LA 14-15.09 MON/TUE
C or W LA, E TX 15-16.09 TUE/WED
C or S TX 14.09 MON
It is currently too far out to tell where along the Gulf Coast Ivan may make landfall. Current projections show E LA to NW FL for most likely area, but it is very possible that it can change. My initial most probable track takes Ivan over Tobago/Grenada today, then just north of the Netherlands Antilles late tomorrow or early Thursday morning. It should be near or just south of Jamica by Friday, and the Cayman Islands by Friday or Saturday. I expect a track over Western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico around next Sunday, heading in a northwesterly direction.
POSITION AND INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL 11.8 N 60.2 W 100 KT
NEXT ADVISORY 11.9 N 61.4 W 100 KT
12 HR 12.0 N 63.4 W 110 KT
24 HR 12.9 N 67.2 W 110 KT
36 HR 13.5 N 69.8 W 110 KT
48 HR 14.5 N 72.4 W 115 KT
72 HR 16.0 N 77.0 W 120 KT*
96 HR 19.0 N 81.0 W 125 KT*
120 HR 21.5 N 84.0 W 130 KT*
*NOTE: At these points in time, Eyewall Replacement and Rapid Intensification could vary the intensity between 105 KT and 150 KT.
U.S. GENERAL LANDFALL PROBABILITIES WILL BEGIN BEING ISSUED ON THU SEP 09 2004.
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NOTE: If anyone could make my forecast into a graphic and post it, I would be very grateful as this is the first time of many I will be issuing LAT/LON with my forecasts. Thanks!
