Some Mileposts for Ivan: Near-Term Track

[donsutherland1]

During the day today, Hurricane Ivan has been taking a track that is exceptionally similar to that of Hurricane Gilbert (1988) albeit approximately 3° south of Gilbert's track.

Some mileposts to determine whether that track is sustained for the near-term:

• If Ivan reaches 65° West below 13.0° North
• If Ivan reaches 70° West below 13.5° North

Gilbert's Track:
<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/GILBERT/track.gif">

A track more similar to Allen (1980) would entail the following:

• Reaches 65° West below 13° North
• Reaches 70° West around 14° North

Allen's Track:
<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/ALLEN/track.gif">

For now, I believe that Ivan will continue to follow a track somewhere between that implied by Gilbert and Allen through at least 70° West.

If that track were to be largely sustained through 85° West though a little farther to the north than at present, an extremely dangerous situation could develop for at least parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

However, at this point in time, that remains to be seen, especially as Ivan could begin to take more of a turn to the north along the lines of David. Of course, that would have its own implications, especially if Ivan were to pass over the western end of Cuba.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, Ivan remained on a track very similar to Hurricane Gilbert and, also the blend between Gilbert's and Allen's track. Early this norming, he crossed 65° West Longitude and 12.4° North.

In the near-term, per last night's discussion in this thread, I expect him to cross 70° West Longitude at or just below 14° North.