AFD NWS Key West

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 080727
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
RADAR HAS BEEN SPECKLED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. SCATTERED AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE
GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 MILES WEST OF THAT AREA. ISOLATED ECHOES ARE
ALSO BRUSHING THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL AWAY FROM THE UPPER KEYS. ALL
THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH JUST ABOVE 10 KNOTS.
LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN THE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
HAVE SETTLED CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS ON AVERAGE...BUT STILL SOME GUSTS
NEAR 15 KNOTS. THE ISLAND SENSORS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

.FORECASTS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REACHES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ITS AXIS IS
ALIGNING MORE CLOSELY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEP SOUTH FLOW TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED IN THE SHORT
TERM BUT AT SPEEDS WE HAVE NOT SEEN FOR OVER A WEEK OR SO. THE SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A SMALL AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRYING
FROM LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER OUR RAIN
PROBABILITIES BELOW A MODERATE CHANCE ESPECIALLY WITH THE SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW. GFS REMAINS MORE MOIST THAN THE ETA INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LOCALLY OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. WILL
STICK CLOSER TO ITS NUMBERS UNTIL FRIDAY.

MORE OF A SPREAD IN MODELS WITH CONCERNS TO THE TRACK OF IVAN...WITH
THE GFS A RIGHT OUTLIER WHICH PULLS THE HURRICANE INTO THE BAHAMAS
LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK PUTS THE CIRCULATION CENTER
NEARLY 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST BY LATE SUNDAY...AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK PERIODS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMMENCING ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY UNLESS SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO IVAN COME ABOUT.&&

.MARINE...
RECENT SHIP REPORT SOUTWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS SHOW THAT SEA
CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED NICELY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL BEING
REPORTED. LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGING LIFTS NORTHWARD...BACKING WINDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM...PUT A MORE DEFINITIVE
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT INTO THE GRIDS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IVAN
CHURNS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...TURNING OUR WINDS FURTHER TO THE
EAST. NO CHANGES FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS IVAN REMAINS
THE MAJOR INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW AIR ROUTE AS WELL AS
AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ANYTIME. MEAN WIND VECTOR IS 170/10KT...BACKING TO 140/10KT
AFTER 00Z. AVERAGE TOPS ~FL350 WITH MAX TOPS TO ~FL450.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 89 80 89 80 / 50 40 40 40
MARATHON 91 80 91 80 / 50 40 40 40
&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL...........MR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...............D. FELTGEN