Pattern in Transition

[MWatkins]

Looking at vapor imagery (larger scale):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It looks pretty clear why Ivan has started to move wnw in this deep easterly flow...see the mid/upper advancing into and past 70w now with a low starting to cut off further east?

We may be entering (or are) a more progressive pattern with a more amplified ridge-trough scenario...al la the Euro/Nogaps/GFS. The models more or less have been suggesting for DAYS that the steering pattern will amplify some at the wrong time.

One thing I wanted to mention is that the hurricane models were too far north as this flat ridge/trough pattern started...right when Frances was developing. Perhaps...and I could be crazy here...the models didn't have adequate data to handle the pattern change over the eastern atlantic...mainly because Frances developed WAAAAAY out by Africa.

I think it is critial to note that the pattern was in transition then and the models needed a while to adjust. Once they fell in line the overall guidance was good...details on the final shift into Fl were into question but the overall track up until Central FL...especially with the Euro and Nogaps to a lesser extent were good.

Guess what? The pattern is in transition again. Over a much richer data region. Just checked the HPC 3-7 day discussion and guess what models are handling this pattern change most consistently.

Ah...you have to read to find out...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

My point...just because the models were too far north in the old pattern with Frances 2 weeks ago does not automatically imply they are too far north with their extended solutions.

MW

[ericinmia]

Excelent Post mike!
-Eric

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

well said, Mike. I dont have anything to add

[JTD]

Mike, can I get your analysis on the below:

VERY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS CONT WITH HANDLING HURCN IVAN
RANGING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO YUCATAN AT LONGER RANGES.
LATE MORNING AND AFTN RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS(12Z RUNS OF
UKMET/NOGAPS/CANADIAN)SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION COMING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AFFECTING FLORIDA/NERN GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
SEE NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS.

Thanks!

[MWatkins]

Mike, can I get your analysis on the below:

VERY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS CONT WITH HANDLING HURCN IVAN
RANGING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO YUCATAN AT LONGER RANGES.
LATE MORNING AND AFTN RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS(12Z RUNS OF
UKMET/NOGAPS/CANADIAN)SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION COMING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AFFECTING FLORIDA/NERN GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
SEE NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS.

Thanks!

Hey Jason...

When the pattern is in transition...the resoultion on some relatively smaller scale features become difficult for the models so the solution set spreads out.

Here...we still hae a broad range of possibilities that range from the ne gulf to NC.

In fact the 18Z GFS is out to sea for the 4th run in a row.

That's really all it says.

MW

[chadtm80]

Fantastic post once again Mike! Next tuesdays show should be VERY VERY interesting. Cant wait! Very insightfull as always dude