Southeast FL... feeling sick to my stomach

#1 Postby **KBBOCA** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:30 am

I'm in shock at the latest five day track and the words "southeast FL" (the GFDL model track) in the current 5 a.m. discussion.

But what really got me was calculating the closest point of approach for Boca Raton & West Palm Beach, and realizing both would be in the NE quad if this track holds.

For Boca Raton/Gulf Stream (zip 33487)
Results for 26.409N, 80.089W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 26.4N, 81.0W or about 56.5 miles (90.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 110.5 hours.

For WPB:
Results for 27.5N, 80.1W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 27.5N, 81.0W or about 55.3 miles (88.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 117.0 hours.

praying for a miracle... God dramatically weakened Frances. We need it to happen again, or even better a SHARP right turn out to sea ASAP.

I'm personally overseas and out of harm's way. But my family & friends are not. Praying for you all throughout the state of FL or wherever Ivan goes.

#2 Postby **Deenac813** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:35 am

I am with you. I only got about 5 hours of sleep last night but I woke up knowing the 5 am was out & hoping it was better for us and it turned out to be worse! :eek:

bosag · #3 Postby **bosag** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:37 am

This is totally NOT FUNNY :eek:

I guess the one good thing about it is, my inlaws are bringing a generator (be here this weekend), now gotta go get gas.

Barb

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:39 am

yeah it's not funny...

yankeelmbb · #5 Postby **yankeelmbb** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:52 am

I had a bad feeling about this one as of yesterday...driving around looking at the damage here in Melbourne and thinking of all those people with blue tarps still on their roofs....I too am feeling sick to my stomach(hope it's not from the boil water alert) I have become paranoid about passing a gas station without filling up...even if it's just a few gallons....THIS IS SO NOT FUNNY

#6 Postby **DelrayMorris** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:42 am

We still don't have any power and don't know when we will have power. I just got back to work today.

I have no idea what we would do if Ivan does come this way. The stores near me just came back on-line last night. I can only prepare so much for Ivan, as we can't restock our water supplies unless FPL gets our power up before Ivan shows up, and food/batteries, etc are in short supply county wide. We are still living on our hurricane supplies, so restocking them is difficult. I haven't been able to watch this storm much, so I'm just hoping at this point that it goes somewhere else (Sorry, Somewhere Else, but I just can't handle this right now).

#7 Postby **wsquared77** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:43 am

I had that sinking feeling in my stomach when I saw the 5 am track also. I know it's still 4-5 days out, so I'm trying not to panic, but if the storm took the current path and maintained it's intensity, we'd have nothing left.

#8 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:45 am

wsquared77 wrote:I had that sinking feeling in my stomach when I saw the 5 am track also. I know it's still 4-5 days out, so I'm trying not to panic, but if the storm took the current path and maintained it's intensity, we'd have nothing left.

Hang in there!

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:12 am

That's a pretty hard turn considering what Ivan was doing up til then. I'd say off the east side of Florida becomes more likely with this type of veer. Central America is out.

All you can do is watch to see if it levels-out or corrects more west again.

Even if he went straight for Miami, the part of Cuba that he would have to cross would cut him back substantially from where he is now...

After this big turn are you also thinking he'll go east of Miami?

x-y-no · #10 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:25 am

Sanibel wrote:That's a pretty hard turn considering what Ivan was doing up til then. I'd say off the east side of Florida becomes more likely with this type of veer. Central America is out.

All you can do is watch to see if it levels-out or corrects more west again.

Even if he went straight for Miami, the part of Cuba that he would have to cross would cut him back substantially from where he is now...

After this big turn are you also thinking he'll go east of Miami?

As late as 1 this morning I was calling the east of FL GFS option incredible. Another 12-18 hours on this course, though and I think it'll be the best hope we have ...

Not to wish any evil on our Bahamian neighbors, but that's some crow I wouldn't mind eating if it came to it.

The GOM possibility is still open for a little while, though.

TS Zack · #11 Postby **TS Zack** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:43 am

Ivan might put the Icing On The Cake. My prayers are with all of you but remember still far way out.

#12 Postby **KBBOCA** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:48 am

Delray... and others in S. FL: my thoughts and prayers are with you. I have friends in Boca who don't yet have power either. I can only BARELY begin to imagine what it must be like when one DOES get power back and get tv and get online only to find news of Ivan as a Cat 5 currently tracking for S. FL.

May God give you courage, wisdom, strength & peace.

#13 Postby **alicia-w** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:54 am

Remember Lili? That monster was supposed to absolutely decimate Louisiana. But then it just basically pooped out.... Now I dont know that I ever heard an official technical reason why it did that, but if it happened once, cant it happen again?

Patrick99 · #14 Postby **Patrick99** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:39 am

alicia-w wrote:Remember Lili? That monster was supposed to absolutely decimate Louisiana. But then it just basically pooped out.... Now I dont know that I ever heard an official technical reason why it did that, but if it happened once, cant it happen again?

You are right. Even if it comes here, it won't be a Category 5. No way. Might not even be a Category 3. It has to deal with Jamaica and Cuba. At any rate, I don't yet see any reason to panic or worry.

T'Bonz · #15 Postby **T'Bonz** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:41 am

This is surreal. Everyone's nerves are frayed.

And they haven't even picked up all of the tree debris here yet, we got our first garbage pickup (unexpectedly during a severe thunderstorm, so we had to run out with an umbrella and the trash), so if they don't pick them up by this weekend and the beast comes, there will be lots of things to fly through the air.

Josephine96 · #16 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:43 am

This is definitely not funny! Ivan is deadly business here.. Lets just hope this catastrophe goes somewhere else..

PTrackerLA · #17 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:43 am

Can't believe the NHC track that they have out right now. I just can't believe Florida might get ANOTHER storm! What a horrible hurricane season this has turned out to be...

Josephine96 · #18 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 11:50 am

If anything GOOD has come out of it.. Us Floridians are now more hurricane experienced..

calidoug · #19 Postby **calidoug** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 12:08 pm

God dramatically weakened Frances? Really? Did he dramatically strengthen it in the first place, too? Did he direct it to trash the Bahamas?

canegrl04 · #20 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 12:14 pm

I believe in God,and from my understanding of things,God does not direct hurricanes,or orders where earthquakes happen.He created nature,and nature does its own thing

Southeast FL... feeling sick to my stomach

Southeast FL... feeling sick to my stomach

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