NHC and the GFL

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chadtm80

NHC and the GFL

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:02 am

If you look at the model maps all the models are Right of the NHC track except the GFS.. They seem to be exact lock with that model. WHy.. What are they seeing that the GFS is seeing that the other models are not seeing?
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FloridaDiver
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Looking for right shift of track

#2 Postby FloridaDiver » Fri Sep 10, 2004 7:18 am

Excellent point, I have read that historically the NHC favors the GFDL, is there ant truth to this? Once again there seems to be model agreement, except NOGAPS and the GFDL. The model agreement seems to once again bring Ivan through the center of the state then an exit on the East coast. I’m a fan of WXRISK’s forecasts, his long range track record speaks for itself and his latest forecast has also shifted to the right. If the model runs show this right shift again perhaps the NHC track will once again be similar to Advisory #28, with a more northerly component of course.

http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/ivantrack_adv28.gif

Latest WXRISK Forcast
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm#ANALYSIS:
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