Floydbuster's 8th Ivan forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 8
Friday September 10, 2004 6PM
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Ivan is still an extremly dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph and a dropping 937 mb pressure. I expect little/no intensification before it hits Jamaica. Still, this is no cakewalk.

The movement is to the west-northwest at about 11 kts. I expect a general west-northwest track through 36 hours, then a northwest track and then due north as a trough moves in. After 48 hours, I expect a due north movement. Therefore, my track is a little farther north and a little slower than my last... yet I am still a little farther east than the NHC track.

The intensity should be determined by ERC's and fluctuations. Cuba may cause some slight weakening, but not much. Then it will get into the area north of Cuba and South of Western Florida. It is in that area that I fear rapid intensification may take place. Although shear may develop, I am not forecasting a weakening of 35 mph. Infact, I call for status-quo in the 72 hour period due to the possible intensification. I am still calling for a category 4 hurricane at landfall. I see no time for shear to have a HORRIBLE impact on Ivan. Therefore, I am calling for 120 kt at landfall. If shear gets to it quicker than expected, 105-115 kt. If it goes under a rapid intensification cycle, 125-140 kt. This is all possible folks. I have a feeling this forecast may have me bashed, or credited. Ivan has already killed 32 people. I have a feeling after Jamaica, Cuba, and the USA, Ivan's death toll may climb well into the hundreds. Let's hope that people are ready for this one. Prepare, thats all you can do. Please folks, don't be fooled. Ivan the terrible....

NOTE: NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS... IT LOOKS LIKE IVAN WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN CUBA AND THE US MAINLAND. BE READY... PLEASE.

12 HRS-- 18.0N-- 77.6 W-- 125 kt (EXITING JAMAICA)
24 HRS-- 19.3N-- 79.1 W-- 130 kt
36 HRS-- 21.0N-- 80.8 W-- 140 kt
48 HRS-- 23.0N-- 82.0 W-- 130 kt (EXITING CUBA)
72 HRS-- 25.0N-- 82.0 W-- 120 kt
96 HRS-- 27.0N-- 82.0 W-- 90 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 29.0N-- 82.0 W-- 40 kt (INLAND)

TRACK GRAPHIC:
http://www.freewebs.com/caneguy/ivan.JPG

[Cape Verde]

It looks like it could be hundreds, if not more, on Jamaica alone. This storm is approaching at the worst possible angle to inflict the maximum amount of damage.

[TS Zack]

Good forecast. We shall see. One thing to point out models are now trending WEST!

[tallbunch]

do you think this will ride the east coast