Shear

[Buck]

Once Ivan gets into the Gulf, whats the shear supposed to do? I've only heard that its supposed to make it weaken gradually.

Is this still what they are thinking?

I haven't seen any maps showing the upper level winds or anything. I'm just hoping someone can fill me in.

[dennis1x1]

yes..the shear is supposed to be fairly significant.....the results are a disruption of the inner structure of the hurricane as well as blocking the outflow channels....

all the major models continue to forecast this in the gulf...

frances is an example of what even minor shear can do to a very powerful hurricane (cat 4 to cat 2 in 12-24 hours) over very warm water.

because of this ivan is forecast to weaken to a cat 3 storm....although the potential would be for an even lower storm IF the forecast shear does develop to the extent it is predicted.

[Fodie77]

yes..the shear is supposed to be fairly significant.....the results are a disruption of the inner structure of the hurricane as well as blocking the outflow channels....

all the major models continue to forecast this in the gulf...

frances is an example of what even minor shear can do to a very powerful hurricane (cat 4 to cat 2 in 12-24 hours) over very warm water.

because of this ivan is forecast to weaken to a cat 3 storm....although the potential would be for an even lower storm IF the forecast shear does develop to the extent it is predicted.

You sure are bearish when it comes to hurricane strength. I hope you're right, but I just can't see Ivan dropping to a minimal hurricane.

[dennis1x1]

when the ships model forecasts a decrease in strength (as it did with frances) i take note...as the intensity models with storms over warm water like to strengthen storms at the drop of a dime..

frances is the blueprint.....hopefully ivan follows....

[Buck]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

Lets watch and see if it starts to show it decreasing.

[dennis1x1]

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

heres one forecast map of windshear...notice the lighter yellows from south of florida westward at day 3

[ColdFront77]

Forecasting upper level wind shear isn't always that easy... it remains to be seen what happens with the forecast for wind shear in that region (southwest of Florida) in the next one to three days.