Mike, do you think the GFS will hold true?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this is the most recent run, http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
and I'm not sure it is, is this what you are talking about? Do you think that this scenario could play out?
I noticed that it seems to have pegged Ivan to miss Jamaica to the south. I wonder how accurate the rest will prove to be.
Obviously where I live, I am watching Ivan intently.
I tried to get plywood today at Home Depot, but they were all out. People were pissed that had been standing in line for hours when the announcement came.
Guess we'll just hope the glass doors hold.

[MWatkins]

The track does seem reasonable given the way the pattern is setting up. Of course...we have a day or two more to watch this before you would need to start preparing...but the GFS solution does seem reasonable.

Currently...given everything we are seeing tonight...a track closer to the FL big bend or west of there seems like a 60% chance...and a track to the east of there seems like a 40% chance.

We should still keep an eye on the mid to upper low racing across the western Atlantic however...I still think the models are underrepresenting this system some...and this feature could still have a lot to say about the future of Ivan.

Since this is somewhat of a new solution...let's wait 12 more hours before jumping on it.

MW