EXPEXT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT.

[Windfall]

THIS A QUOTE FROM ORTT'S FORECAST...
"The previous track forecasts have suggested this motion, therefore this track will be right on top of the previous one, however if Ivan does speed up some, this track forecast may be shifted left, while if Ivan slows down substantially this track may be shifted to the right."

IVAN IS SLOWING DOWN, NOW FROM 10 TO 8 MPH.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

O.K. YOU HAVE A REPLY...YOU DON'T NEED TO RE-POST!

[Brent]

I don't think so. If anything, the track will continue shifting west.

[ColdFront77]

Ivan's speed in the last 12 hours:

11pm to 2am: 27.2 miles | 2am to 5am: 46.7 miles | 5am to 8am: 29.7 miles | 8am to 11am: 24.1 miles --- 12 hour average: 10.64 mph


The storm has moved more northerly in the last 12 to 24 hours.


It makes sense that a forecast track to the right of the latest one would be further east in response to the trough moving in/drier air in the western and central Gulf of Mexico.

It looks to me that the ULL to Ivan's northeast caused the short-lived (but not entirely uncommon without a ULL located there) WSW movement we saw yesterday.

[Anonymous]

THIS A QUOTE FROM ORTT'S FORECAST...
"The previous track forecasts have suggested this motion, therefore this track will be right on top of the previous one, however if Ivan does speed up some, this track forecast may be shifted left, while if Ivan slows down substantially this track may be shifted to the right."

IVAN IS SLOWING DOWN, NOW FROM 10 TO 8 MPH.

I agree as there is even indications it may crawl or even stall and allow the trough to pick Ivan up and turn it north-northeast towards the peninsula...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

There is a turn once inland now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/111453W5.gif

[chris_fit]

I will comment on this later when I make my forecast for today.... but you are correct it will shift to the right, not at 5pm... but at 11pm for sure. You can read my forecast form yesterday here...

http://www.aboutmylife.net/users/chris_fit

[ColdFront77]

I agree as there is even indications it may crawl or even stall and allow the trough to pick Ivan up and turn it north-northeast towards the peninsula...

That goes to show the reason for that forecast models and the NHC official forecast track were indicating a Florida peninsula, then west-central Florida landfall during the course of the week.

Those in the forecast cone should prepare now and with every hurricane threat.

[ColdFront77]

There is a turn once inland now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/111453W5.gif

The turn in the latest official NHC forecast track issued in the last 30 to 45 minutes isn't a shift (back) to the right.

As Chris said above it should take place if not in the next forecast path update at 5 pm Eastern, then 11 pm Eastern... if not both.

[B-Bear]

Yes, the multiple posts regarding the same subject matter (Ivan's track) serve only to clutter the board, and we don't need that right now. Could we make an effort to consolidate our posts about the same subject in one post?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

There is a turn once inland now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/111453W5.gif

The turn in the latest official NHC forecast track issued in the last 30 to 45 minutes isn't a shift (back) to the right.

As Chris said above it should take place if not in the next forecast path update at 5 pm Eastern, then 11 pm Eastern... if not both.

I noticed the path was straight, once inland, on the last track it is now to the right??

[chris_fit]

I love how at 8am on tues they have a shift in the track...
NNW to NNE....

lol

[Brent]

There is a turn once inland now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/111453W5.gif

The turn in the latest official NHC forecast track issued in the last 30 to 45 minutes isn't a shift (back) to the right.

As Chris said above it should take place if not in the next forecast path update at 5 pm Eastern, then 11 pm Eastern... if not both.

I noticed the path was straight, once inland, on the last track it is now to the right??

A little. It still goes along a line from SW Georgia to Western NC from 96-120 hours. Before that though, it's a little to the left.

[Stormcenter]

THIS A QUOTE FROM ORTT'S FORECAST...
"The previous track forecasts have suggested this motion, therefore this track will be right on top of the previous one, however if Ivan does speed up some, this track forecast may be shifted left, while if Ivan slows down substantially this track may be shifted to the right."

IVAN IS SLOWING DOWN, NOW FROM 10 TO 8 MPH.

I agree as there is even indications it may crawl or even stall and allow the trough to pick Ivan up and turn it north-northeast towards the peninsula...

Based on "Derek's" forecast there is still HOPE for your for your direct hit Windfall

[FloridaDiver]

There is a turn once inland now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/111453W5.gif

The turn you mention on the 11:00am Advisory track I feel is way to north, the digging through will be parallel to that forecasted turn, I feel a turn to the NNE will be much earlier in the track, how early will depend on how fast Ivan exits Cuba, I’m not buying the Panhandle strike just yet.

[Josephine96]

I'm still not buying the panhandle business either.. It's way too early

[Josephine96]

So the probability of a peninsula landfall is still pretty high?

[chris_fit]

So the probability of a peninsula landfall is still pretty high?

I think so.

[Josephine96]

Me too.. I think it'll be somewhere between Tampa and Cedar Key or so but probably south of Cedar and affecting Central Fla greatly..

Not a wishcast.. just an observation

[Brent]

So the probability of a peninsula landfall is still pretty high?

No. But then again, the probability of a Panhandle hit isn't high either, but it's gradually increasing. I seriously don't see this hitting from Tampa south.