FSU Superensemble link?

[cat]

Thanks.

[air360]

i dont think the FSU model is available to the public...although there are a few people on this board who have connections who can sometimes tell you what it is saying...

[CaluWxBill]

It used to be, but they blocked access to me this summer

[cat]

i dont think the FSU model is available to the public...although there are a few people on this board who have connections who can sometimes tell you what it is saying...

Cripes.

No wonder why I haven't been able to find it anywhere.

Thanks.

[Derek Ortt]

It has never been available to the public and I don't believe it is in the ATCF either

[CaluWxBill]

It has never been available to the public and I don't believe it is in the ATCF either

I swear I was able to access it, never for tropical cyclone analysis though. I'll be honest, I didn't look into real hard, but there was about a gazillion speghetti plots of the other models. I don't quite recall ever seeing the consensus solution.

[Steve]

You used to be able to get some graphical depiction from independentwx last year.

Steve

[birder]

There's something very wrong about FSU withholding hurricane forecasts. First of all, the equipment etc is paid for in part by public money. Second, this is truly a matter of life and death. Even if it was totally paid for by private monies, they should make it available. I think all Florida residents should be contacting their state representives to ask why public money is going toward this project given FSU's refusal to release this information when it's really needed. If I am missing some reason why FSU shouldn't be releasing this when a potential Cat 5 is bearing down on Florida, feel free to enlighten me.

[alicia-w]

They dont withhold hurricane forecasts. The NHC uses it. There are TONS of government-funded projects that the public doesnt have access to.

[Derek Ortt]

FSU is under no obligation to relase model data and them not releasing model data to the public in no way affects the public awareness. The public (those 99.99% with little meteorological knowledge) should be paying attention to the forecasters and not individual model runs

[birder]

My understanding is that they only began releasing it to the NHC recently.

And, they don't release them to the general public. Hence cat's post asking for the link, and the replies saying "sorry, there are none available because FSU doesn't release it."

About the fact that there are lots of govt-funded projects that the public doesn't have access to .... First, yes, many need to be secret for national security etc. Of those that don't need to be secret, how many so prominently affect public safety in such an immediate way?

Second, just because it *is* that way doesn't mean it *should* be that way. I argue that there's no real reason to keep the FSU superensemble models secret. There are definitely public safety benefits and little to no public harm.

[PanAmMIA]

There's something very wrong about FSU withholding hurricane forecasts. First of all, the equipment etc is paid for in part by public money. Second, this is truly a matter of life and death. Even if it was totally paid for by private monies, they should make it available. I think all Florida residents should be contacting their state representives to ask why public money is going toward this project given FSU's refusal to release this information when it's really needed. If I am missing some reason why FSU shouldn't be releasing this when a potential Cat 5 is bearing down on Florida, feel free to enlighten me.

Perhaps because professionals should have access to the data? Otherwise a bunch of geeks with a laptop (myself included) would be making yet more predictions that "this is a carolina event, and I really really mean it this time!" Believe me, all sorts of public money is used to collect data that the general public doesn't have access to, and shouldn't have access to.
There seems to be more than an adequete supply of not only raw data out there, but also armchair meterologists all to willing to make prognostications based upon what, in many cases, is simply an uneducated guess. Would you be willing to bet your life or your property on a wishcast read on an internet message board?
Mike

[TheWriteIdea]

Cheers Birder! My thoughts exactly!

[NFLnut]

Government money are provided to the University to fund the project, however I believe it would require even more funds to provide a web link for the thousands of hits it would undoubtedly get from the general public. I would imagine that is why it is not available to the public.

BTW -- I don't know this first-hand, it is just my $0.02. I happen to be a Gator.

[birder]

FSU may not be obligated to release information. That doesn't mean the people of Florida should accept that arrangement.

I guess my concern is that the FSU model is the best. From what I've read, they've been either the best or second best model for hurricanes the past number of years.

It seems a little odd to argue that the public is too dumb to know what to do with the FSU model. Given that reasoning, NO models other than the official NHC model should be available. Is that what you are arguing? Would you be happier if these other models were not available to the public as well? If not, why do you think the FSU model should be withheld but not the others?

[PanAmMIA]

FSU may not be obligated to release information. That doesn't mean the people of Florida should accept that arrangement.

I guess my concern is that the FSU model is the best. From what I've read, they've been either the best or second best model for hurricanes the past number of years.

It seems a little odd to argue that the public is too dumb to know what to do with the FSU model. Given that reasoning, NO models other than the official NHC model should be available. Is that what you are arguing? Would you be happier if these other models were not available to the public as well? If not, why do you think the FSU model should be withheld but not the others?

I seem to recall a thread on the board here a few days ago which essentially amounted to "the FSU SE model sucks." I am not arguing that no models other than the official one should be made available, and would appreciate it if the only words put in my mouth are those that actually originate there. I also seem to recall hearing that FSU is working in cooperation with a number of private corporations and entities who may or may not have a proprietary interest in keeping the information under wraps, so to speak. In lieu of that kind of arrangement, which may or may not exist, I would have no problem subscribing to a fee based service that included their forcast models.
Do you honestly believe that the general public could make sense of the kind of data, and spaghetti string forcast tracks, that come from such ventures? I work for the government in the field of public health and our supercomputers generate all matter of scenarios that would cause nothing but panic to the general public if they were ever released. My best guess would be that is the scenario behind FSU keeping the information from the general public and transmitting it only to those who use the information to either confirm or deny a general thesis about a storm and it's movement.
Mike

[birdwomn]

I think they may have good reasons for feeling these are not ready for public availabity as yet. If we don't know the potential flaws in the programs, we could be making poor decisions based on incorrecct assumptions only because the FSU SE is "the best we have". It still might not be good enough and may need more fine tuing.

All of the model data should be used by laypersons only as a matter of trying to understand how things work in trying to track a storm, not in trying ot predict it. We can see how widly they vary from run to run based on the data they have available. Sometimes they are dead on and all clustered, sometimes not. Generally ONE of them will be pretty close to correct, but we don't know which one. Almost always a consensus of them will be correct, but which consesus?

Please note, I am speaking as a systems engineer of 20 years, not as a met or scientist.

[Sean in New Orleans]

This ensemble isn't available to the West, however, I've heard about this ensemble and it's painfully West for most on this board. It's almost over to Mississippi from what I've been hearing.

[CaluWxBill]

This ensemble isn't available to the West, however, I've heard about this ensemble and it's painfully West for most on this board. It's almost over to Mississippi from what I've been hearing.

There is too much ensemble variance to buy into the FSU forecast at this time. With the GFS showing a bimodal solution, possibly other models as well, I really don't see how the FSU forecast will be very trustworthy at this moment.

[Wannabewxman79]

PanAmMIA

Now that crap about Carolina is uncalled for. Some on here are just misinformed about how hurricanes work and just predict what will happen because of the past 10 years or so. Now I hear of some -removed- all over here but it is usually for snow and not hurricanes. So now how about keeping your little jabs at the carolina people to yourself and actually add something to the boards.