MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...SW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 151741Z - 152045Z
WW LIKELY WILL BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
STRONGER 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN UP NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE DODGE CITY KS
AREA INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING IS ALREADY SUPPORTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND
THIS FORCING/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INTERACT WITH DRY LINE BY
THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. BY THIS TIME...ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF DRY LINE...NORTH
OF MID/UPPER JET AXIS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
BECOMING STRONG AND INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.