DT and past preformance

[Myersgirl]

Anybody know DT's record on accuracy. Warning : there is a lot of info in his post and requires reading at least the last three.

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm

[Foladar]

Woah..his red line is where he thinks it will go?
that would be a direct hit on Miami...

[FloridaDiver]

Woah..his red line is where he thinks it will go?
that would be a direct hit on Miami...

Don’t just look at the red line, please read his forecast… he mentions in the last paragraph of today’s forecast that depending on when and where this projected north turn occurs, he may have to flip back to an early track he forecasted on Thursday that takes Ivan not so east but more over on the west coast near Tampa.

[FloridaDiver]

Anybody know DT's record on accuracy. Warning : there is a lot of info in his post and requires reading at least the last three.

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm

He has a good track record with long range forecasts; others on this board would verify that as well. In fact he mentioned that Ivan would go south of Jamaica several days ago.

[Agua]

He does well, no question. Risking the ire of the clique though, he's shifted around like hell on this one. No one expects perfection though.

[Lockhart]

Sometimes he does well; sometimes he's just completely wrong. He's had Ivan aimed straight at Miami since it was just off South America. Looking at what I see right now, I think he's just being obstinate in the face of mounting evidence of an incorrect guess.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I had tried to post something similair but I could not explain it that way. I see the potential for Ivan to cut the corner to the east and follow the channel into the bend area vs the W panhandle. In fact, I'll go that far. NE turn into the big bend and across the peninsula. I will say that that if I am wrong. Destin will be talking about Ivan for 50 years

[Myersgirl]

I enjoy his forecast and explanations. He is pretty good at admitting when he is wrong but has not conceeded so this time. I would say he still sees a more easterly hit at this point as opposed to just being stubborn.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

DT is not only very qualified but uses similar methods I have learned along the way in forecasting. I will vouch for DT as 'knowing his stuff.' now, no one is 100% right all the time. DT 'may' have been dead wrong in calling this a 'non-florida event'. In the end, HE MAY HAVE BEEN RIGHT. thats up in the air , you see.

you have to understand, when it comes to long range forecasting hurricanes, experience and synoptic dissection are far more accurate than any models will be. This isn't a science of watching a few models run and following a darn low pressure.

Anyway, read his reasoning and you will see that not only is DT honest he is not 100% accurate, nor am I or anyone else.

[Lockhart]

I guess I find his way of telling what he thinks off-putting. You suggest no one's 100% accurate (including DT), and I agree, of course. Yet, while allegedly honest according to you, he continually says things like "They are all full of s***! They're wrong! It'll be doing X 10 days from now!!" Well, if no one knows for sure what's happening 5 days out, why has he been saying he's sure what's happening more than 5 days out? "This is 100% wrong" is routine from him, whether talking about his own predictions or those of others.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

because he's right. GFS is full of sh**.

[Lockhart]

? GFS forecast Frances weakening while stalling for a day off the Florida coast. DT said GFS was full of s***. GFS was right. GFS forecast a turn North with landfall right where it hit. DT said "No North turn!" a million times. Sure, the GFS is often wrong at 5 days out, say, but at least it doesn't pepper its forecasts with "And people who disagree with this are full of s***!"

[latemodel25]

can you provide me a link to their forecast?

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

? GFS forecast Frances weakening while stalling for a day off the Florida coast. DT said GFS was full of s***. GFS was right. GFS forecast a turn North with landfall right where it hit. DT said "No North turn!" a million times. Sure, the GFS is often wrong at 5 days out, say, but at least it doesn't pepper its forecasts with "And people who disagree with this are full of s***!"

Um, personally I looked at the GFS and noted the stalling of frances. and pointed it out to barometer bob in the chat. he said, oh its not stalling on that model, its slowing. I said 'ok Bob...'

in reference to DT, he was and is referring to the GFS performance with medium range forecasting. GFS was into North Carolina with Frances? GFS was into Bahamas with Ivan? riiight. We are talking about tracking hurricanes path, not synoptics or strength. GFS is actually very good with high-res synoptics, and decent medium range. But it's not goign to initialize tropical systems as well as other models and give good medium range means for ensembles, etc