Just about all models

[mobilebay]

have been right of track so for. So why is the NHC track on the right of the 12Z guidense. By the way that "short term west wobble" the NHC refered to is still going on. When is this not a wobble? When will we realize that the models do not have a clue? This "short term west wobble" has been going on now for about 24 hours. Look at the 8PM postion last night and look at the current position. It is just a hair north of due west. Sure, the models are forecasting a northwest turn, but they have been forecasting it for how many days now?

[ericinmia]

have been right of track so for. So why is the NHC track on the right of the 12Z guidense. By the way that "short term west wobble" the NHC refered to is still going on. When is this not a wobble? When will we realize that the models do not have a clue? This "short term west wobble" has been going on now for about 24 hours. Look at the 8PM postion last night and look at the current position. It is just a hair north of due west. Sure, the models are forecasting a northwest turn, but they have been forecasting it for how many days now?

I noticed that the latest few frames have slowed if not stopped Ivan...

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

have been right of track so for. So why is the NHC track on the right of the 12Z guidense. By the way that "short term west wobble" the NHC refered to is still going on. When is this not a wobble? When will we realize that the models do not have a clue? This "short term west wobble" has been going on now for about 24 hours. Look at the 8PM postion last night and look at the current position. It is just a hair north of due west. Sure, the models are forecasting a northwest turn, but they have been forecasting it for how many days now?

I noticed that the latest few frames have slowed if not stopped Ivan...

finally, something substantial eric. the storm is certainly slowing down and losing confidence in its direction. the atlantic ridge is breaking down, later than expected. Ivan should start a wnw then NW turn, probably losing strengthn initially then perhaps intensifying. cayman islands and eventually west cuba is under the gun next 36 hours

[mobilebay]

have been right of track so for. So why is the NHC track on the right of the 12Z guidense. By the way that "short term west wobble" the NHC refered to is still going on. When is this not a wobble? When will we realize that the models do not have a clue? This "short term west wobble" has been going on now for about 24 hours. Look at the 8PM postion last night and look at the current position. It is just a hair north of due west. Sure, the models are forecasting a northwest turn, but they have been forecasting it for how many days now?

I noticed that the latest few frames have slowed if not stopped Ivan...

finally, something substantial eric. the storm is certainly slowing down and losing confidence in its direction. the atlantic ridge is breaking down, later than expected. Ivan should start a wnw then NW turn, probably losing strengthn initially then perhaps intensifying. cayman islands and eventually west cuba is under the gun next 36 hours

I agree with you. It has slowed alot. how for do you think it will go west before a due north turn?

[hurricanedude]

stalling sometimes/usually suggest a turn if Im not mistaking

[SCUBAdude]

Well, you do have a point. What's a guy to say? I'll have to admit that while I've not been saying it on the forum, you have. And I've agreed with you. It all kind of makes us scratch our heads here on the AL. coast. The pucker factor is starting to increase just a little down here in Gulf Shores but I still think it will go East of us, however, evry mile it goes West leaves me more disconcerted.
SCUBAdude.

[FungusMoldlyColdcuts]

scuba dude, be weary. this storm is nothign to play with as you know! infact Ivan may start west northwest again beyond this slowdown. In my opinion, the steering currents are breaking down at this time and we have ourselves a slow moving, devestating catagory 5 hurricane. keep an eye out for this monster gulf coast.

[mobilebay]

scuba dude, be weary. this storm is nothign to play with as you know! infact Ivan may start west northwest again beyond this slowdown. In my opinion, the steering currents are breaking down at this time and we have ourselves a slow moving, devestating catagory 5 hurricane. keep an eye out for this monster gulf coast.

So do you think this will be a NOrth central Gulf Coast, Eastern Gulf Coast event. You seem to have a good handle on this I've noticed.

[SCUBAdude]

Oh believe me, I'm on this thing like a duck on a junebug. But thanks for the heads up.
SCUBAdude.

[tronbunny]

The Sept 12 00Z BAMM, BAMD, LBAR is out

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

040912 0000 040912 1200 040913 0000 040913 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.2N 79.6W 19.0N 81.3W 19.9N 83.0W 21.0N 84.4W
BAMM 18.2N 79.6W 19.2N 81.5W 20.1N 83.4W 21.0N 85.1W
A98E 18.2N 79.6W 18.6N 81.0W 19.6N 82.3W 21.1N 83.4W
LBAR 18.2N 79.6W 19.2N 81.4W 20.5N 83.1W 22.1N 84.4W
SHIP 145KTS 146KTS 139KTS 131KTS
DSHP 145KTS 146KTS 139KTS 131KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040914 0000 040915 0000 040916 0000 040917 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.2N 85.5W 24.6N 86.8W 27.6N 86.5W 32.0N 83.2W
BAMM 22.0N 86.2W 24.0N 87.1W 27.3N 85.9W 31.9N 83.2W
A98E 23.5N 84.2W 27.1N 85.7W 30.3N 86.0W 29.2N 84.6W
LBAR 23.9N 85.7W 27.9N 86.4W 31.6N 84.9W 34.4N 82.6W
SHIP 131KTS 115KTS 103KTS 77KTS
DSHP 99KTS 83KTS 41KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7K
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 145KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 910MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW =150NM

Between 96 and 120 hours the BAM models take a quick right hook to the NE right up into the big bend!
The LBAR and whacky A98E have already landed east of Pensacola at 96hrs.

[dennis1x1]

so the ships model shows a 103kt landfall.....the 11pm advisory has 115kts at 72 and 70 at 96......do they have a 84 hour like the ships does? i assume its the same since they have 115 at 72 also......but do they have an official landfall forecast of 100-105 kts..minimal cat 3?

[tronbunny]

on this run (00Z), landfall occurs at 96hrs for LBAR and A98E but the BAMs do that wide right turn and have landfall in the big bend between 96 and 120 hours.
The official track will always be a compromise.

[mobilebay]

The Sept 12 00Z BAMM, BAMD, LBAR is out

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

040912 0000 040912 1200 040913 0000 040913 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.2N 79.6W 19.0N 81.3W 19.9N 83.0W 21.0N 84.4W
BAMM 18.2N 79.6W 19.2N 81.5W 20.1N 83.4W 21.0N 85.1W
A98E 18.2N 79.6W 18.6N 81.0W 19.6N 82.3W 21.1N 83.4W
LBAR 18.2N 79.6W 19.2N 81.4W 20.5N 83.1W 22.1N 84.4W
SHIP 145KTS 146KTS 139KTS 131KTS
DSHP 145KTS 146KTS 139KTS 131KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040914 0000 040915 0000 040916 0000 040917 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.2N 85.5W 24.6N 86.8W 27.6N 86.5W 32.0N 83.2W
BAMM 22.0N 86.2W 24.0N 87.1W 27.3N 85.9W 31.9N 83.2W
A98E 23.5N 84.2W 27.1N 85.7W 30.3N 86.0W 29.2N 84.6W
LBAR 23.9N 85.7W 27.9N 86.4W 31.6N 84.9W 34.4N 82.6W
SHIP 131KTS 115KTS 103KTS 77KTS
DSHP 99KTS 83KTS 41KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7K
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 145KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 910MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW =150NM

Between 96 and 120 hours the BAM models take a quick right hook to the NE right up into the big bend!
The LBAR and whacky A98E have already landed east of Pensacola at 96hrs.

YES. those are the same models that "hooked" Ivan into the atlantic a couple of days ago.

[LakeToho]

The NHC and models do not do well in the gulf. They never have.. Hurricanes seem to misbehave once they enter the gulf. I am not saying that the storm will misbehave, but I caution anyone to not take this track literally.. Take your precautions, but watch this storm carefully. We are still 4-5 days out from a landfall (maybe soon depending upon how well Ivan behaves)... The hurricane is about to enter the playground.

[tronbunny]

There's still a trough from the panhandle to 26N93W and theres a stronger than expected ridge sitting above the straits between cuba and Yucatan
These will both play a part.
(what part, I don't know, Im asking)
read about it here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?