What's everyone think of the 5-Day forecast NOW?

[WeatherNole]

For the record, I've expressed my disdain for the 5 Day forecast before. I seem to remember that the main reason that was given for switching to it was so that the Navy could get their ships out (which they couldn't do with 72 hour notice). I say fine - tell the Navy. I also seem to remember that NHC did NOT want to issue the 5-Day forecast, but were told to do so anyway. Can anyone confirm or deny that?

For the residents of Florida, this has been a week of anxiety, for literally the entire coastline - but especially for the gulf coast.

Let's look back:

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Wed 11pm Advisory:

72 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Sat): between Little Cayman and central Cuban coast. Off - but not all that bad.

120 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Mon): Very close to Punta Gorda.

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Thu 11am Advisory:

72 hr forecast position (actually 8am Sun): between Little Cayman and the west-central Cuban coast. Again - Off - but still not all that bad.

120 hr forecast position (actually 8am Tue): After predicting landfall in Charlotte Harbor - the 8am Tue position has it just west of Orlando, as an 85 kt hurricane.

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Thu 11pm Advisory:

72 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Sun): near the west-central Cuban coast. Will end up not being great, but still well within the avg. error margin.

120 hr forecast position (actually 8pm Tue): After predicting that it will graze Pinellas County as a 120 kt hurricane (think about what would have meant to Tampa Bay), it puts the 8pm position near Cedar Key. (*Note* - the western edge of the margin of error for this advisory was just west of Mobile.)

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Fri 11am Advisory:

72 hr forecast position (actually 8am Mon): exiting the west-central Cuban coast and moving very close to Key West. This will likely be a fairly large miss - but still barely within the 72 hr avg. margin of error.

96 hr forecast position: (actually 8am Tue): still forecast to graze Pinellas County (and fill up Tampa Bay) as a 100 kt huricane.

120 hr forecast position (actually 8am Wed): Up near Macon, GA as a 40 kt tropical storm.

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I guess that's enough. We get the picture.

This has been a difficult system to predict. It has been on the far western side of the 72 hr error margin multiple times. This greatly compounds the errors at 120 hrs, causing near panic for millions of Floridians. Sure, NHC could have shifted their tracks westward earlier a few times, but didn't. Was it a bit of CYA forecasting? Perhaps, but seeing as how Bonnie, Charley, and Frances have all ended up to the right of the predicted gulfcoast landfall, I can't say that I blame them for waiting it out a bit before changing. Overall, I think they've done a decent job within the 72 hr time frame - certainly not great, but decent, all things considered. At hours 96 and 120, they CLEARLY state : "ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY". When's the last time you heard someone give those numbers on a national broadcast?


Just my opinion (as a broadcast met), but I think that the 5-day forecast may offer some usefulness to emergency planners, but it can be downright detrimental (with emphasis on the MENTAL part) in the hands and minds of the public.

It's not easy telling my viewers over and over again about the margin of error at Day4 and Day5 when all they see is a forecast of a cat 3 or 4 making landfall on their house on TWC, national news, and all over the internet. I've essentially been blackmailed into showing the full 120 hr forecast, even though I'd rather not. I'd love to only show the 72 hr forecast, but then they'll see those Day4 and Day5 forecasts elsewhere, without anyone giving them some guidance as to what they really mean.

Sigh. Sorry this turned out to be so long. I just needed to vent. I know that there is no turning back now. NHC will never be allowed to go back just issuing 72 hr forecasts to the public - no way. But . . . perHAPS the residents of south Florida, central Florida, the Big Bend and the Panhandle will realize in the future to look at the Day4 and Day5 stuff with a slightly more skeptical eye.

Perhaps.

I can hope.

Mike

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p.s. The archived advisories/graphics that I used for this post are here:

Graphics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml

Advisories:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/refresh/IVAN+shtml/120234.shtml?

[ROCK]

great post...I agree whole heartly...

[dennis1x1]

the data is there for all to see....whether the nhc tries to educatedly publish a 5 day forecast or not.....

i personally would rather this be the case than everyone just running willy nilly with the available model forecasts..

unless you support the idea of locking this info away for the privilidged few, which im sure you dont, i really dont see a point.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I see the 5 day forecast, but, don't take it extremely seriously....I do take a more serious look on the 3 day forecast, though.

[Greg]

The problem is with the line in the middle heading into your back yard. If they used a fatter light grey line, or cone, it would help. It's the graphics that freak people out.

[dennis1x1]

but again....even with the line being in your backyard...at least if the NHC does it local mets arent as likely to draw their own lines......which they would anyway...

the media is the problem...not the nhc.

[WeatherNole]

the data is there for all to see....whether the nhc tries to educatedly publish a 5 day forecast or not.....

i personally would rather this be the case than everyone just running willy nilly with the available model forecasts..

unless you support the idea of locking this info away for the privilidged few, which im sure you dont, i really dont see a point.

There really isn't a point. It was more of a vent than anything else. We've gone well past the point of no return. NHC issues 5Day forecasts. Model data - some of it going out 15 days is in nearly every home now via the internet. There is no way the 72 hr forecast can come back. More responsibility has definitely been placed on those that disseminate the tropical forecasts though - especially the broadcast mets. Some will calm viewers. Some will panic viewers. Guess my job is to do the former.

Mike

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[WeatherNole]

but again....even with the line being in your backyard...at least if the NHC does it local mets arent as likely to draw their own lines......which they would anyway...

the media is the problem...not the nhc.

I agree to some extent. That's why I stopped using the "middle line" on my forecast graphics. Unfortunately, I appear to be in the minority. I will admit that I still plot the individual forecast points at 24 hr intervals with the forecast intensity though. Maybe I shouldn't do that either. Food for thought. Perhaps TWC's way should be the standard. Thoughts on that?

Mike

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[Greg]

But the forecast, in the discussion and advisories, say something different than the graphic does. The graphic needs improvement and if some TV station wants to draw a pinpoint of the middle, they will not look as progressive as the NHC. Its all marketing.

[dennis1x1]

yep..agree...point of no return but i get the point of why you need to vent......the "boy who cried wolf" would be my biggest fear for the public...especially as the media/internet/etc. frenzy for hurricanes has reached a fevered pitch probably never seen before......

hopefully more people become educated and realize the true meaning of the 5 day.....but more likely is that people whine that "it didnt hit me and they told me it would and i did all this work but not next time".

[Huckster]

but again....even with the line being in your backyard...at least if the NHC does it local mets arent as likely to draw their own lines......which they would anyway...

the media is the problem...not the nhc.

I agree to some extent. That's why I stopped using the "middle line" on my forecast graphics. Unfortunately, I appear to be in the minority. I will admit that I still plot the individual forecast points at 24 hr intervals with the forecast intensity though. Maybe I shouldn't do that either. Food for thought. Perhaps TWC's way should be the standard. Thoughts on that?

Mike

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This might not be exactly the subject at hand, but, concerning the cone, even though TPC always emphasizes the fact that there will be errors and one should not look at the line in the middle of the cone as Gospel truth, but realize that bad conditions could occur anywhere in the cone since the cone is the area of possible error, it's been my experience (again, just my personal experience, amongst the circles I travel) that many people will disregard the whole cone unless that black line is pointed at them directly. I think a lot of those same people would feel the same way even if there was no black line in the middle. They'd just figure out where the middle of the cone was and make their own line and assume that's probably where TPC thinks it will go. And about the 5 day thing, I think it might end up being good in the end since a lot of people tend to extrapolate the direction of the storm after the forecast period, which is never a good idea. They do the same thing with the 5 day as they would with the 3 day. So, to me, looking at it like that, it's probably better (though still wrong) to extrapolate a possible position for day 6 based on the 5 day forecast position than to extrapolate a day 6 from the 3 day forecast position. Just my thoughts.

[Novelty's Worn Off]

>>>at the desk of Michael Moore..."wait a minute...(hmmmm, FL Gov., the Pres., evacuation =travel=selling gas...it's about oil again!, I KNEW IT!)" (only kidding)

[Greg]

The bottom line is that the NHC graphic can be improved. First of all, the little red dot doesn't represent the size of the hurricane. Frankly, it looks like they use a TRS80 to do them on, which they should be representing themselves as a high tech branch of the government, since their information, in all ways represented, have a huge effect on the masses.

[Storminole]

My own take on the 5-day forecast isn't the problem with folks panicking when the "center line" is aimed right at them. If they rush out to stock up and prepare, well little of that will likely go to waste in the long run, they'll live. And a jolt to get people thinking about what they need to do in the event a storm comes is probably not a bad thing.

A bigger concern is those folks a bit away from the center line taking it as an all-clear: "the storm's gonna miss here; let's head to the beach this weekend." But that's true at much shorter forecasting periods too. Take the fools who remained on Captiva Island the morning of Charley, based upon a 12-hour forecast track taking the storm into Tampa Bay. Betcha they won't be doin' THAT again.

I agree that the worst problem of having a 5-day forecast is the visual impact of the storm's track being laid out on a map--which the public takes as fact. Perhaps this could be attenuated some by placing additional information on the map. For instance, at the 4 and 5 day positions, placing a little box there that says something like, "5-Day Position: Winds 90 mph, Average Accuracy 22%." Something to serve as an immediate reminder of the large average forecast error involved when you get beyond 3 days.

I think the 5-day forecast is good because I want to have as much information as possible, even just a "best guess" about where a storm will be. Otherwise I'm left with my own hunches and nothing else. Plus, having to issue a 5-day forecast confronts the NHC with examining which models do best at long range and why, and striving to find ways to lower the average margin of error. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that at one time the NHC considered a 72-hour forecast to be a real stretch of limited worth.

[Greg]

Good points. I think another improvement would be to release the graphics every thirty minutes or so, to show the public just how much the track shifts around.

[birdwomn]

Good points. I think another improvement would be to release the graphics every thirty minutes or so, to show the public just how much the track shifts around.

PLEASE NO!!! I work in a library where the public comes to get information when they get confused by the media or other sources. (I will refrain from comment on whether that is a good idea or not, the bottom line is that we are an information source.)

1) The 5 day is here to stay - inconsistent and inaccurate as it may be
I think the NHC needs to get local mets and TWC to stress in thier forecasts that days 4 and 5 are very much subject to change.

2) The red line just needs to go. It confuses people, gives them a false sense of security, etc. What I really do find useful, even if not 100% accurate (nothing is really), was the skeetobite.com streetlevel maps that showed the wind fields, the first ones they started doing. Then people could find thier house and see what the possible projection of winds would be at thier house. Granted, the winds would likely be quite a bit less than what was on those maps, but I think that was a great visual to show people what was possible at thier house, which is what they are really interested in. It made it very easy to explain to folks who were panicking that the winds typically decrease as the storm moved across land, etc.

The other thing I see that needs to be stressed by OCM is that you should have a plan for your home and family that works for you, then you should just work your plan. When you find yourself getting anxious or worried or panicked, take a step back, remove the emotions, and just think thru your plan, revise it as needed, and set your plan in motion. This needs to be stressed over and over because no one can tell someone else what is right for them and thier home and family. Even the EOC for each county can only make thier best guess for the county or state as a whole, they don't know your individual situation.

We all have the frustrations that go with not enough time to evacuate, close our businesses, etc. That's why we need the 5 day forecast, but we have to take it for what it's worth and do the best we can.

Sorry so long, but I have been dealing with this over and over and would really like for folks to have the info they need to make good decisions. Thanks for bringing up this topic, btw

[Persepone]

[quote="Storminole"

I think the 5-day forecast is good because I want to have as much information as possible, even just a "best guess" about where a storm will be. Otherwise I'm left with my own hunches and nothing else. Plus, having to issue a 5-day forecast confronts the NHC with examining which models do best at long range and why, and striving to find ways to lower the average margin of error. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that at one time the NHC considered a 72-hour forecast to be a real stretch of limited worth.[/quote]

I'm old enough to be absolutely amazed at how much weather forecasting has improved in my lifetime! When I was a kid, it seemed as if you got little or no warning at all... And if you read the "personal stories" on the storm of 1938 (see PBS website--don't have link) you'll see that people had absolutely no idea there was a hurricane headed their way.

I'd much rather prepare for a hurricane (or other potentially disastrous event) that did not materialize (and have done so) than live through childhood hurricane experiences again with no warning, no preparation, etc. Those 5 day forecasts give an early "heads up." While they certainly raise anxiety levels, they also lower the death rates, etc.

As for how the "general public" reacts--I'm "general public." I pay attention. No, I don't just "watch the line." If tropical force winds extend outward 175 miles from the eye, then even if the eye is 150 miles away from me, I still should not be out on the beach, etc. So if anything I sort of "add" to the edges of the "cone." Also, even for "far away" hurricanes, I think about rain, flash flooding, etc. Other people I know react very differently. An acquaintance left her teenage children home alone when Hurricane Bob threatened and flew off to Europe on a planned trip, expecting that "insurance" would take care of any problems. Go figure!

This board is invaluable for putting news in perspective. What is shown on TV news (don't have cable) is odd, to say the least. For one thing, the 3 different channels' mets today are showing three different cones on TV--I guess they all recorded their shows at different times... "The latest... actually have 3 different "time stamps" on the graphics... I'm not sure that I would have noticed this if I weren't on this board and I would have been a lot more confused--now I just see what they did.

[dirtgirl]

I'm old enough to be absolutely amazed at how much weather forecasting has improved in my lifetime! When I was a kid, it seemed as if you got little or no warning at all... And if you read the "personal stories" on the storm of 1938 (see PBS website--don't have link) you'll see that people had absolutely no idea there was a hurricane headed their way.

this isn't the PBS link, but a professor from Long Island has a great website about the 1938 hurricane, including this amazing first-hand account of a survivor of the storm. It's clear nobody saw it coming at the time.

[browe29]

Mike...get some sleep. You might be needing it shortly.

Brian

[dhweather]

I completely agree with this. There are too many large errors after 72 hours to broadcast to the public.