Accuweather 12 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 13, 2004 11:36 a.m.


Dangerous Ivan Approaching the Yucatan Channel

As of 11 AM EDT, Category 5 Hurricane Ivan was centered at 20.6 north, 84.4 west, or about 85 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ivan is moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph; hurricane-force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center. The estimated central pressure is 915 millibars (27.02 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth; a hurricane watch is in effect for the rest of Cuba. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.

The subtropical ridge, or high pressure area aloft, has been steering Ivan. The strength of this high, and whether or not the trough that will attempt to dig into the Plains midweek has any influence on Ivan will be keys to its movement. A weaker ridge, and the influence of the trough will take Ivan north, and even north-northeast; thus, the Florida panhandle would be in line for landfall. On the other hand, there is evidence to support little influence from the Plains trough, and thus residents as far west as the Louisiana coast need to be very concerned. Based on model and real-time data that we have available now, we believe that Ivan will make landfall Wednesday night or Thursday morning between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Appalachicola, Florida, probably as a category 4 hurricane.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a very strong tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, along 39 west, south of 27 north. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, along 59 west, south of 20 north, approaching the Leeward Islands. This wave is getting better organized. A relatively weak tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean, along 71 west, south of 20 north.

[CaptinCrunch]

"Based on model and real-time data that we have available now, we believe that Ivan will make landfall Wednesday night or Thursday morning between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Appalachicola, Florida, probably as a category 4 hurricane."



Mobil AL, Gulfport MS, NO LA. get ready