NWS Tampa: Looks good --- but watch out!

[dixiebreeze]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
200 PM EDT Monday Sep 13 2004


Short term (ton-wed)...surface high pressure over the middle Atlantic
coast will gradually retreat northeast through the period.
Powerful Hurricane Ivan approaching the Yucatan Channel at this time will
track northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. West/v
imagery shows a well defined u/l trough digging over the lower
Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf of Mexico...which will help
turn Hurricane Ivan northward Tuesday and Wednesday. Current track
from the National Hurricane Center keeps Ivan 250 to 300 miles west
of west central and southwest Florida. Ivan is a large storm
system...which would put the region on the eastern edge of the
storm. If this forecast holds...would expect the outer bands of
Ivan to spread over the southern area late tonight...the central
forecast area on Tuesday...and the northern forecast area Tuesday night. Periods of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through Wednesday...
decreasing Wednesday night from south to north. Tides will
gradually increase Tuesday night with generally tides of 2 to 4 feet
above astronomical values on Wednesday. As Ivan nears landfall
late Wednesday night near the extreme western Florida Panhandle...
tides could be 4 to 6 feet above normal in the Cedar Key area.


But as long as Ivan remains south of our latitude it remains a
threat to west central and southwest Florida. All areas must remain
alert to any possible changes to the forecast track as it would have
a direct effect on the weather across west central and southwest
Florida. If the storm tracks 100 miles east or west of the current
projected track...it would have a significant impact on the current
forecast.


Long term (wed night-sun)...ivans effects in the long term will be
mainly over Gulf waters and northern zones with gusty southeast
winds Wednesday night becoming south Thursday. A combination of
the large swells generated and the moderate southerly component and
resultant ekman flow toward the coast will will likely produce above
normal tides along coastal areas and perhaps minor coastal flooding
north of Tampa Bay. After the brush with Ivan and trailing moisture
bands... a return to normal afternoon convection and temperatures
will take place over the weekend.


&&


Marine...with powerful Hurricane Ivan forecast to move into the southern
Gulf overnight...the gradient will continue to tighten over the
eastern Gulf through Wednesday with increasing winds and seas. Large
swells generated by the hurricane will move into the eastern Gulf
Tuesday and Wednesday as Ivan moves north through the east central
Gulf producing high surf and damaging wave action. Mariners should
stay advised of the latest forecasts from the NHC for Hurricane Ivan.
The hurricane is forecast to move into the deep south Friday with
winds and seas slowly subsiding into the weekend.

[Downdraft]

Thought Chad asked us not to post this stuff just the link for it?