New radar product

[PurdueWx80]

Just kidding. This is a model run from the 4-km WRF (very high resolution) being run specially for Ivan over the next couple of days at NCAR. The initial time was 00Z last night and this is the 21 hour forecast, valid in about half an hour. Notice how it is almost perfect. Now, click the link below to see where it is in 48 hours (from last night).

http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/wrf/4km/2004091300/dbz.hr48.png

It continues Ivan on a generally NW track up to this point, but we won't know where it brings Ivan inland until 48 hours prior to landfall (actually less because it takes so long to run).

[PurdueWx80]

Note - forgot to mention this but the WRF you see above did catch the current NNW motion and continues it until this evening. Once the trough to the north moves out (and it is bookin' it's way out of the TN valley now w/ only a small piece jutting towards the Gulf) the model resumes a general northwest motion.

This is a very impressive forecast so far, this model has the potential to be revolutionary...expect to see it used operationally in 3-5 years.

[Rob Beaux]

Are you going to post where it predicts landfall, when ever it does?

Interesting model picture and looks good.

[PurdueWx80]

I will, but it only goes out to 48 hours from last night, which is tomorrow evening. We probably won't see where it makes landfall for another 24-48 hours, (and that would be an extrapolation) unfortunately. It is only run once per day.

[Rob Beaux]

Thanks.. just making sure that we would see it again when it predicts a landfall.