Why the difference in NHC graphics?

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Ixolib
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Why the difference in NHC graphics?

#1 Postby Ixolib » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:30 pm

Can someone explain why the NHC track map does NOT agree with the strike probabilities graphic? Looking at the track would make one draw a conclusion Ivan's going to the Panhandle. Looking at the strike probabilities graphic would indicate otherwise.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/132133.shtml?
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#2 Postby wabbitoid » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:49 pm

I believe that they are trying to avoid a panic so they can have an orderly evacuation of New Orleans. Just my hunch.
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Re: Why the difference in NHC graphics?

#3 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:49 pm

Ixolib wrote:Can someone explain why the NHC track map does NOT agree with the strike probabilities graphic? Looking at the track would make one draw a conclusion Ivan's going to the Panhandle. Looking at the strike probabilities graphic would indicate otherwise.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/132133.shtml?


I wonder if they were planning to shift the track west to the MS coast at 4pm but that 2-3 hour northerly wobble made them decide not to move the track at the last minute. Perhaps whoever did the graphics did them ahead of time, when they were going to move the track westward.
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#4 Postby caneflyer » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:07 pm

The strike probability program looks at a sample of previous "similar" forecasts over a number of years. If the strike probability curve departs from the forecast track, it most likely means that historically, there has been a bit of a cross-track bias in the official forecast in that area.
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#5 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:26 pm

What I want to know is why the storm is moving NNW and north and yet the guidance shifts west?
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