New Vortex: New Eyewall Becoming Better Organized

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 141540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1540Z
B. 23 DEG 24 MIN N
86 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2496 M
D. 55 KT
E. 226 DEG 65 NM
F. 319 DEG 102 KT
G. 227 DEG 027 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 13 C/ 3089 M
J. 16 C/ 3079 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 1234/7
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF984 3409A IVAN OB 22
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NW QUAD 1411Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 228/19NM FROM
FL CNTR. NEW EYEWALL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

[canegrl04]

Crap. Ivan doesn't want to give up so easily

[Aquawind]

Sure is..Dang it!! Bigger as well..

[Brent]

Not good. The pressure has leveled off too.

[JTD]

Question: What caused the old eyewall to collapse? Dry air and shear?

Is that shear and dry air gone now? Is that why Ivan is feeling better.

[Brent]

Question: What caused the old eyewall to collapse? Dry air and shear?

Is that shear and dry air gone now? Is that why Ivan is feeling better.

I'm thinking it was an eyewall replacement.

[LAwxrgal]

*gulp*

[CaptinCrunch]

I said that about 1 hour ago, Ivan will go through a couple more ERC's before landfall.

Ivan will be at least a VERY STRONG cat 3 if not Cat 4 at landfall. Ivan has been able to handel the dryer air by pushing it off to the south over the Yucatan and handel what shear their has been

[Huckster]

This is from the latest TPC discussion

AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
RELAXATION OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR ABOUT THE TIME THAT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF.

This is the latest map showing hurricane heat potential in across the north Atlantic. Notice that is the area they're talking about.



Looks to me like the shear may have relaxed some. The storm's western side has has expanded and become more symmetrical the last few hours. A 140 mph hurricane is already nothing to play with, and seeing that it looks like the weakening is over for now, it might start strengthening again, especially as it nears that eddy.

Edited to show image - mf_dolphin

[Sanibel]

Ivan got broadsided by a changeover from favorable tropical air to CONUS air in the GOM. The shear was obvious in his lopsided shape. Small west side, expanded east side.

I'm also seeing that better form and better core. He is presently over the very warm Gulf Stream inflow from the Yucatan Channel...

[LAwxrgal]

Oh sheesh I'm looking at that eddy, WOWZER.
Not to mention, you could see where Ivan has been.

[Guest]

True. Also looks to be heading a little more west. I say cat4 at landfall. Not as strong as Camille though. Well the bright side is they have Stephanie Abrams in Mobile. At least we can see her get blown around.

[canegrl04]

So we're looking at the possibility Ivan could bomb big time when he reaches that eddy.

[PurdueWx80]

Some people were asking recently how Javier would affect Ivan's structure. Well, at first it looked as if there could've been some shear induced by Javier's outflow. Now that the track for Javi has changed, that doesn't look to be the case. Instead, there looks to be a massive amount of very moist air being yanked from Javier by the west coast trough. You can see it heading in the general direction of the Gulf, and this could be an effective means of eroding the current dry air near 500 mb.

Check out this CONUS wv loop:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... e&itype=wv

[Guest]

So we're looking at the possibility Ivan could bomb big time when he reaches that eddy.

Yes. I dont think this will be another camille though. Water temps not as warm.