New vortex on Jeanne=Almost a hurricane,998 mbs

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cycloneye
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New vortex on Jeanne=Almost a hurricane,998 mbs

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:35 pm

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 141912
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1912Z
B. 16 DEG 41 MIN N
   63 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 60 KT
E. 052 DEG 17 NM
F. 110 DEG 57 KT
G. 057 DEG 015 NM
H. EXTRAP 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 239 M
J. 25 C/ 328 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 0111A CYCLONE OB 10
   MAX FL WIND 58 KT SE QUAD 1714Z.SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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jpigott
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#2 Postby jpigott » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:38 pm

this is like some kind of nightmare. NHC was predicting a hurricane 5 days out and here we are 12 hours later and we have almost got a hurricane
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gkrangers

#3 Postby gkrangers » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:39 pm

I've switched my focus to Jeanne...I'm so tired of Ivan, I need change.

Altho Jeanne will likely be a strong TS or minimal H for a while.

But I'm returning to Daytona Beach on Friday (my college reopens on Monday...they closed for Ivan when central FL wasa possibility)..so if I have to deal with another evacuatin, I'm not gonna be a happy camper.

I'm riding this one out!
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:40 pm

its not almost a hurricane. only 58KT at 850mb, 50KT storm at most
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:40 pm

The nation's Southeast is sure on someone's list.
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:42 pm

So what are Jeanne's approx. winds now..?
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cycloneye
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:43 pm

60 mph and going up sadly for us here.
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gkrangers

#8 Postby gkrangers » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:60 mph and going up sadly for us here.
You in a flood prone area in PR?
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Josephine96

#9 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:45 pm

60 mph.. middle of the ts bracket near the high end of it..
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yoda
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#10 Postby yoda » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:57 pm

Josephine96 wrote:60 mph.. middle of the ts bracket near the high end of it..


I see a hurricane by tomorrow... :eek:
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Josephine96

#11 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:58 pm

Ditto
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notgroovy
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#12 Postby notgroovy » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:02 pm

Line D in the vortex message is the "estimate of surface wind speed." I don't know why everyone focuses on calculating this and that percentage of the flight level winds instead of using this rather important line that takes into account the observations of the on-board meteorologists.

So, yeah, a 60kt estimate here certainly makes it almost a hurricane.
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kevin

#13 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:04 pm

Its because line D is visual estimate. Not very accurate most of the time.
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Patrick99
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#14 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:09 pm

At this point, jeanne doesn't look like a hurricane at all to me.
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notgroovy
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#15 Postby notgroovy » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:17 pm

Hmm. I imagine most surface wind visual estimates are about as accurate as plugging flight-level winds into a formula. ...or satellite observations. I like measured surface windspeeds I think.
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