NHC -- IVAN 40 MILES FROM LANDFALL on ALA COASTLINE

[yoda]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 55a


midnight CDT Thu Sep 16 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan nearing the Alabama
coastline....

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west
of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown
Florida.

At midnight CDT...0500z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was
centered near latitude 29.7 north... longitude 87.9 west or about
40 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast
track...the core of the hurricane will reach the coast in a few
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan
is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three
or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane
Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the
surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a
30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could
spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during
the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly
with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained
winds of 79 mph with a gust to 102 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft was 936 mb...27.64 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama...
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the midnight CDT position...29.7 N... 87.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 936 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am
CDT.

Forecaster Avila