From the Jeanne 11AM discussion

[x-y-no]

After that
there is considerable uncertainty depending on the evolution of the
mid-level remnants of Ivan...which could be anwhere from the
Tennessee Valley to Cape Hatteras in three days. The more eastern
solutions result in a more northerly track of Jeanne through 5
days...as indicated by the GFS and UKMET. More westward
tracks...toward Florida...are indicated by the GFDL...ECMWF...and
FSU superensemble. Steering currents are expected to become weak
in about 48 hours and it is not yet possible to confidently choose
between the scenarios outlined above.

Sorry, but if I have to choose between those, I'll believe the FSU SE and the ECMWF.

[Canelaw99]

Me 2! Seems that they've been the better models so far this year....

[jpigott]

seems to be an awful lot of "weak steering currents" lately

[Patrick99]

I am finding it hard to buy such a sharp right turn as indicated by the NHC forecast. I think the main question here, obviously, is how badly does Hispaniola tear Jeanne up, once it emerges, where is it, and is it still a viable system?

[Foladar]

I gotta agree, that sharp turn isn't too likely..this one won't cut the turn that fast..and I'd have to go with the FSU model and GFDL.

[donsutherland1]

x-y-no,

My early view on Jeanne is that she will not recurve harmlessly out into the Atlantic Ocean as in a fashion similar to that of Hurricane Gert (1981):

Gert's Track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The synoptic situation at the time featured a deep trough that was pushing through the eastern United States:

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317300

The latest runs of the European Model continue to feature a ridge building westward:

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=319390

While Jeanne might have a temporary weakness through which to run, I do not believe that she will break the tackle of this building high. She simply will not be moving fast enough to breakthrough before the hole closes.

In an extreme case, she might take a track near the eastern United States similar to that of Inez (1966) who attempted to recurve but was turned back albeit at a different latitude and longitude:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Overall, I believe that Jeanne will likely cross Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico. Less likely is the chance that she makes landfall along the Southeast Coast from Georgia to North Carolina. Least likely of all--and very unlikely, in my view--is that she recurves out to sea.

[HouTXmetro]

Well if the Mountains tear Jeanne apart, doesn't that mean she will be weaker and move more westerly instead of NW?

[Innotech]

Well if the Mountains tear Jeanne apart, doesn't that mean she will be weaker and move more westerly instead of NW?

hopefully so

[Canelaw99]

But she's not really on a path to go over the bad mountains in the DR. She's skirting the northern part of the island which doesn't have the high, storm killing mountains that the south central part does...

[Innotech]

But she's not really on a path to go over the bad mountains in the DR. She's skirting the northern part of the island which doesn't have the high, storm killing mountains that the south central part does...

hopefully that ridge over her pushes her more southwest. Otherwise the east coast is going to feel it again. I think Jeanne is going to weaken to the point of dissipation myself. Yell at me all you want, but thats my prediction and its just as relevant as anyone elses.

[Foladar]

But she's not really on a path to go over the bad mountains in the DR. She's skirting the northern part of the island which doesn't have the high, storm killing mountains that the south central part does...

hopefully that ridge over her pushes her more southwest. Otherwise the east coast is going to feel it again. I think Jeanne is going to weaken to the point of dissipation myself. Yell at me all you want, but thats my prediction and its just as relevant as anyone elses.

We heard you, the first 435098 times.

[Josephine96]

LOL..

I don't buy the hard right either.. I'm buying more that Florida will have the target on it's back yet again {see my forecast}

[KatDaddy]

Joe really believes and explains in detail why Jeanne will be a GOM storm.

Strong ridging to develop over the SE US after Ivan moves NE. Referenced Betsy and Inez.

[Innotech]

But she's not really on a path to go over the bad mountains in the DR. She's skirting the northern part of the island which doesn't have the high, storm killing mountains that the south central part does...

hopefully that ridge over her pushes her more southwest. Otherwise the east coast is going to feel it again. I think Jeanne is going to weaken to the point of dissipation myself. Yell at me all you want, but thats my prediction and its just as relevant as anyone elses.

We heard you, the first 435098 times.

are you sure? perhaps I shoud say it again.

[SouthFLTropics]

But she's not really on a path to go over the bad mountains in the DR. She's skirting the northern part of the island which doesn't have the high, storm killing mountains that the south central part does...

I respectfully disagree about the Northern part of Hispanola not having the high, storm killing mountains. I have been to the north coast of Haiti before and the mountains rise up right out of the sea there. There is a good bet that Ms. Jeanne will be pretty messed up once she gets past the island unless she gains some latitude fast.

SouthFLTropics

[Canelaw99]

SouthFL - you're totally entitled to your opinion - I respect that. Here's a link to a physical relief map of the DR. Yes, there is a small range in the northern section of the island, however, the worst mountains are in the southern & central portion of it.....

http://www.hispaniola.com/DR/maps/index.html

[SouthFLTropics]

Canelaw...thank you for providing the link to the Hispanola information. I was going on my experience of being there. When I was there I was near Cap Haiten on the northern coast of Haiti and the mountains seemed quite large. Based on the topography maps that you provided it does appear that the Northeastern side of the island is "flatter" than where I was. I apologize for not having enough evidence other than my own experience in one small part of the northern coast to back up my claim. Once again, the link is appreciated. That being said, mountains or no mountains, I feel that the circulation will be substantially impacted by the landmass.

SouthFLTropics

[Canelaw99]

No problem I've, unfortunately, never had the pleasure of visiting Haiti or the Dominican, although my parents have....I always thought the whold island was pretty mountainous myself I think it will be impacted as well, although she's still looking decent from the sat. pics I've seen so far. Maybe she's going to be a stubborn woman and surprise us all! LOL

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick note:

The computer modeling is now all agreeing on a turn back to the U.S. coast. Where the turn occurs is still up for conjecture, but the modeling is now sensing the rebuilding of the ridge.

The BAMM actually turns Jeanne southwest after bringing her north.

So far, early on, Jeanne has stayed to the south of the earlier model guidance. At last word, she was at 19.8N 70.9W after wobbling around over the northern Dominican Republic.

Yesterday evening, I had expected her to cross 19.0N 70.0W and she crossed 19.5N 70.0W overnight. I believe she will cross 20.4N 72.5W later today (up slightly from the evening idea of 20.0N 72.5W given only due to where she wobbled rather than any change in overall thinking).

[donsutherland1]

Much uncertainty exists in the modeling and the situation is quite a bit different from that of even a day or two ago. However, one still finds that at some point the modeling turns Jeanne back to the south or southwest rather than allowing her to escape out to sea.

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=320888

Hence, for now, I continue to believe that she will eventually pose a landfall threat rather than swim with the fish. How she gets there is very uncertain.

Given her small size, I would not be surprised if she is not fully caught by a trough in advance of later ridging. Therefore, it is entirely possible that she will not head as far north as some of the guidance is suggesting prior to any turn back to the coastal U.S.

Earlier today, I noted that I expected her to pass at 20.4N 72.5W. With her drifting almost aimlessly for much of today, that has not yet happened. However, she is close at 20.4N 72.2W.

For now, during the immediate term, I expect Jeanne to pass through:

20.6N 72.5W
21.8N 73.5W

All said, my early thinking as to Jeanne's ultimate fate remains the same:

• Best prospect is an eventual track across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
• Moderate possibility is a track to landfall from Georgia to North Carolina
• Lowest possibility is a track out to sea without a U.S. landfall

With Jeanne's slow movement and no imminent prospect of landfall, along with much complexity in the synoptic picture, there is still sufficient time to take a closer look and to wait for things to sort themselves out.