new jeanne forecast... uncertainty

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Derek Ortt

new jeanne forecast... uncertainty

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 17, 2004 8:56 pm

in other words, clueless, so I merely followed close to the previous forecast and gfdn

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html
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Bane
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#2 Postby Bane » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:09 pm

I do not envy you with this forecast.
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#3 Postby Guest » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:10 pm

I still think she will crawl west hugging NW Hispanola then jumping the Windward Passage moving WNW hugging Cuba to 83 w. Why because that part of Cuba has had record droughts. It seems like it is meant to be. Good evening
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RonStallcup
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#4 Postby RonStallcup » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:22 pm

People in Pensacola are freaking out about this storm.

I've seen this "Freaking" with past storms.

This is a "wait-and-see" one.
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#5 Postby Eyes2theSkies » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:23 pm

i have always had ideas on what storms would do this is the first time that i am totally stumped. good call derek tell it like it is
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Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:26 pm

the problem again seems to lie in the GFS model. I have not seen a model in any previous season make forecasts that have been as useless as this model has done on such a consistent basis. It has got to the point, that I cannot even use the GFDL, since GFS initializations are not even close to reality. I am now using the GFDN instead (GFDN on NOGAPS initial fields)
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Sep 17, 2004 9:30 pm

FWIW, Derek, the UKMET/NOGAPS IMHO has a little better handle on the synoptics ... the prior runs, though, were based on Jeanne still being a well-developed entity, and Jeanne is NOT that ... overall, I like your track idea very well ... and very reasonable given the current scenario ...

SF
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