842
WTNT21 KNHC 180834
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004
0900Z SAT SEP 18 2004
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 72.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 72.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.4W
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.4N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.4N 73.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.8N 73.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 28.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 72.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Jeanne down one Millibar...Still a 45 mph tropical storm!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Matthew5
137
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS FOR IVAN'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE
QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN 3-5 DAYS. THE UKMET TRACK IS EVEN MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT A
CAPTURE. YET ONE THING ALL THESE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS AN
IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION OF A VERTICALLY WELL-CONNECTED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A
LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE ONE THINK THAT JEANNE HAS MUCH VERTICAL COHERENCE. YET...THE
LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES DID GIVE AN ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD
MOTION. WHETHER THE MODELS ARE SEEING SOMETHING I DON'T SEE...OR
WHETHER THE CENTER IS ONLY BEING DRAGGED TEMPORARILY TO THE RIGHT
BY THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING
IS THAT JEANNE IS NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS FAST TO THE NORTH AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...BUT RATHER IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SIMPLER BAM STEERING MODELS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS OR SO. IF JEANNE DOES IN FACT TURN NORTH ONLY SLOWLY...IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FORCED BACK TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...IT IS PROBABLY OBVIOUS THAT
THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW 55 KT OF WIND AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT.
IF JEANNE WERE A MORE CONVECTIVE STORM THAT WOULD CORRESPOND TO 45
KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE I WILL HOLD THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...RESULTING IN MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SHOULD JEANNE TURN
MORE NORTHWARD IT COULD FIND ITSELF UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD
KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD
SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE
ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN
THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.7N 72.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 21.4N 73.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.4N 73.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.8N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 73.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 27.5N 73.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 28.0N 73.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 74.5W 50 KT
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS FOR IVAN'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE
QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN 3-5 DAYS. THE UKMET TRACK IS EVEN MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT A
CAPTURE. YET ONE THING ALL THESE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS AN
IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION OF A VERTICALLY WELL-CONNECTED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A
LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE ONE THINK THAT JEANNE HAS MUCH VERTICAL COHERENCE. YET...THE
LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES DID GIVE AN ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD
MOTION. WHETHER THE MODELS ARE SEEING SOMETHING I DON'T SEE...OR
WHETHER THE CENTER IS ONLY BEING DRAGGED TEMPORARILY TO THE RIGHT
BY THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET CLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING
IS THAT JEANNE IS NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS FAST TO THE NORTH AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...BUT RATHER IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SIMPLER BAM STEERING MODELS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS OR SO. IF JEANNE DOES IN FACT TURN NORTH ONLY SLOWLY...IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FORCED BACK TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...IT IS PROBABLY OBVIOUS THAT
THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW 55 KT OF WIND AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT.
IF JEANNE WERE A MORE CONVECTIVE STORM THAT WOULD CORRESPOND TO 45
KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE I WILL HOLD THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...RESULTING IN MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SHOULD JEANNE TURN
MORE NORTHWARD IT COULD FIND ITSELF UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD
KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD
SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE
ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN
THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.7N 72.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 21.4N 73.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.4N 73.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.8N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 73.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 27.5N 73.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 28.0N 73.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 74.5W 50 KT
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