Chaotic mess with remains of Ivan and Jeanne ...

[Stormsfury]

The old remains of Ivan are splitting, but the associated cloud shield dropping southward, while the rest of the now baroclinic system runs NE ... this split, and associated remnant dropping southward across the Carolinas is interesting ... or it is?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The area is surrounded by dry air ... and dry air underneath the high cloud deck ... just ask me ... you couldn't ask for a more comfortable day here with low humidities, and mild ...

The associated trough axis continues to dig further southward, well into the Eastern GOM, which SHOULD eventually grab Jeanne northward, and SHOULD Jeanne not just be a low-level entity, then Jeanne for the time being, should move northward for a time ... after that, model guidance is split ... the GFS seems as clueless as Paris Hilton deciding on which fashion show she needs to crash ... the GGEM has the Road Warrior High which blocks Jeanne eastward thru 72 hours ... the NOGAPS now paints a Betsy-like scenario, and the UKMET must love "Sweet Caroline-a" ... overall, the NOGAPS/UKMET tandem may have the overall idea .. with the 12 ECMWF running very close behind ... the 12z ECMWF has Jeanne doing the anticyclonic "loopy-loop" in the SW Atlantic ...

Right now, I don't feel the need to rush a discussion up ... b/c I'm not seeing any significant threat to anyone (except for the Bahamas with heavy rainfalls) ...

Time to r and r ...

SF