5:00 JEANNE 50 MPH, 996 MB

[JtSmarts]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Advisory Number 25


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004



at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
located near latitude 24.5 north...longitude 72.3 west or about
145 miles... 230 km...east-northeast of San Salvador in the
Bahamas.

Jeanne is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and a
turn toward the northeast is expected during the next 24 hours.




Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 25


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004



a NOAA aircraft is in the storm and reports step frequency microwave
radiometer surface winds near 45 kt along with 996 mb central
pressure. The advisory initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt.
Satellite imagery shows a well organized symmetric system with good
outflow and banding. The SHIPS and GFDL models bring Jeanne to a
hurricane in a day or two and so does the official forecast...
although not as aggressively as the guidance. The SHIPS model also
shows some rather strong vertical shear affecting Jeanne in 36
hours...so we will have to wait and see how this plays out.
The initial motion estimate is 360/07. The guidance is in good
agreement about a slow north to northeastward motion for 48 hours
into a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a huge low
moving eastward over the Canadian Maritimes. After that...Jeanne
gets fairly close to Karl and they could interact. In any case...a
very slow motion is indicated after 48 hours. The official
forecast track follows a consensus of the global track models
showing a slow generally eastward motion.
Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 24.5n 72.3w 45 kt
12hr VT 20/0600z 25.5n 72.0w 50 kt
24hr VT 20/1800z 26.7n 71.2w 55 kt
36hr VT 21/0600z 27.3n 70.2w 60 kt
48hr VT 21/1800z 27.2n 69.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 22/1800z 26.5n 68.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 23/1800z 26.5n 68.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 24/1800z 27.0n 67.5w 65 kt






Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph... 85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central
pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...24.5 N... 72.3 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 996 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence