Watch the wave SE of TD13. Bigger and badder.

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:33 pm

No one has been talking about it, but it's ALOT further south, is huge and better organized. Remember how Ivan and Charley were low lat, this one is the same way and has a good chance making it across. Also this has the looks at becoming a pretty big hurricane.

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:34 pm

We will watch it as it goes down the road.. its at least a week before getting to the Antilles area...

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:35 pm

yoda wrote:We will watch it as it goes down the road.. its at least a week before getting to the Antilles area...

Yes. If this thing get's cranked up it could just eat td13. This wave is reminding me of ivan. Very large and low lat.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #4 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:37 pm

I actually mentioned it yesterday. I wouldn't call it bigger and badder yet...but it is getting a little better organized as it moves westward....definitely needs to be watched especially given this season's history.

SwampDawg · #5 Postby **SwampDawg** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:39 pm

Will they ever stop forming?? They may just extend Hurricane Season through next year.

Just kidding on that one.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:44 pm

I have a feeling this wave might take a similar path to Ivan or Charley thru the Caribbean. Also this could be our last long track storm of the season. This will be interesting the fact we could by the end of the week have FIVE storms going in the Atl. Jeane, Karl, Lisa, soon to be Matthew, and another potent wave getting ready to come off Africa. Amazing.

yoda · #7 Postby **yoda** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:54 pm

I would like to see the path towards the Eastern Seaboard. Why? Because I think those in FL and in and around the GOM have had enough this season with TCs.

panichead4469 · #8 Postby **panichead4469** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 12:05 am

yoda wrote:I would like to see the path towards the Eastern Seaboard. Why? Because I think those in FL and in and around the GOM have had enough this season with TCs.

WTF? Here in Myrtle Beach,SC -- our weather has been affected this year by Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston and now Ivan. 5 named storms have at least dropped more than enough rain and create overall crappy weather for the good part of the last two months....sure, maybe only two direct hits (Charley as borderline cat 1/2 and Gaston) here, but lets just say we have gotten more rain than anyone needs at all. Have fun with all those tornadoes up near Washington! :raincloud:

yoda · #9 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 12:09 am

panichead4469 wrote:
yoda wrote:I would like to see the path towards the Eastern Seaboard. Why? Because I think those in FL and in and around the GOM have had enough this season with TCs.

WTF? Here in Myrtle Beach,SC -- our weather has been affected this year by Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston and now Ivan. 5 named storms have at least dropped more than enough rain and create overall crappy weather for the good part of the last two months....sure, maybe only two direct hits (Charley as borderline cat 1/2 and Gaston) here, but lets just say we have gotten more rain than anyone needs at all. Have fun with all those tornadoes up near Washington!

Hmmm ok. We have had fun with all the tornadoes up here. And yes, we have gotten a lot of rain as well. Did I say SC? No. I said Eastern Seaboard. I did not delinate (sp?) a place.

#10 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:00 am

Charleycat4 wrote:No one has been talking about it, but it's ALOT further south, is huge and better organized. Remember how Ivan and Charley were low lat, this one is the same way and has a good chance making it across. Also this has the looks at becoming a pretty big hurricane.

NHC says you might be right according to 5am discussion.

yoda · #11 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:08 am

How so?

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING
A SMALL BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER BUT HAS NO
DISCERNABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME. INDEED...THE DEPRESSION
IS CAUGHT BETWEEN HURRICANE KARL ABOUT 650 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAKE THE DEPRESSION
THE WEAKEST OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DO SO GIVEN THE COMPETING SYSTEMS IN
ITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS QUITE FOSSIBLE THIS DEPRESSION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING A WIDE
VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS LOSES THE DEPRESSION IN THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UKMET ENTRAINS IT INTO
KARL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AND TAKES
IT WEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN AFTER KARL
LIFTS OUT...WHILE THE BAM MODELS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF A BEND TO
THE RIGHT. CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER THAN
KARL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF IT MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST ON KARL'S EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION...BUT THEN BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO
THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
THAT KARL WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION BEHIND. GIVEN THE VERY
COMPLICATED ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

Read all the bolded type...

#12 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:22 am

Maybe I misunderstood but TD13 is the weakest and the wave to the southeast would be stronger which is what the initial poster was talking about. Its early and I haven't had my coffee so this is a "very low confidence post." :lol:

yoda · #13 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 4:24 am

LOL!! And I misunderstood as well.. oh well. Its 5 AM! :lol:

#14 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 5:04 am

5:30 TWO mentions that disturbance. Question is: Will it be Lisa or Matthew? And more importantly, where is it going?

yoda · #15 Postby **yoda** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 5:11 am

abajan wrote:5:30 TWO mentions that disturbance. Question is: Will it be Lisa or Matthew? And more importantly, where is it going?

LC talked about it this morning, and said Antilles/PR in 5 to 7 days.

cswitwer · #16 Postby **cswitwer** » Mon Sep 20, 2004 8:16 am

How about hoping it'll head north so that Florida doesn't have to worry, then it'll become a fish without ever threatening the eastern seaboard?

Watch the wave SE of TD13. Bigger and badder.

Watch the wave SE of TD13. Bigger and badder.

Re: Watch the wave SE of TD13. Bigger and badder.

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