Tampa and Ivan's remnants

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FXUS62 KTBW 200616
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...AFTER A MONTH OF TRACKING TROPICAL
CYCLONES AFFECTING THE STATE...BOOM! THE FIRST CRACKS OF AUTUMN ARE
ON OUR DOORSTEP (JUST IN TIME AS THE EQUINOX IS WED). INDICATORS OF
SEASONAL TRANSITION CAN BE FOUND ALOFT...AS 500 MB PATTERN HAS
BUCKLED INTO DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...SPRAWLING 1030+ HIGH HAS PROVIDED AN
OCTOBER PREVIEW FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. NORTH OF 32N.

UNDERNEATH THE SFC HIGH EXISTS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
BELOW THE BUILDING RIDGE THE WEAK REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FOR TODAY AND TUES...EXPECT BREEZY CONDS...WINDY OVER AND NEAR
THE COAST AND ACROSS LAKES AND BAYS. IVAN'S REMNANTS CROSS THE
STATE AKIN TO A TUTT FEATURE LATER TODAY THROUGH TUES. IN GENERAL...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EACH DAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER.

THE DILEMMA IS...HOW MUCH RAIN...AND WHERE? ETA IS QUITE PROFICIENT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA-LAKELAND N...WITH
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. GFS IS LESS
EMPHATIC AND FARTHER S...WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS THE N 1/3 TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. FIRST...BELIEVE ETA IS OVERDONE GIVEN NON-TROPICAL
NATURE OF SYSTEM...SO HAVE CUT QPF FCSTS IN HALF. AT THE SAME
TIME...NOT SURE I BUY GFS SOLUTION OF DRIVING THE DEEPER DRY AIR
INTO CENTRAL/S PENINSULA BY TUEN NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE MEAN FLOW
WILL BE TURNING ESE AS 500 MB RIDGE FLATTENS TO OUR NORTH.

IN THE END...USED A BLEND WHICH GIVES BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
DAY ON TUES...MAINLY AROUND AND JUST N OF TAMPA BAY...OTHERWISE FAST
MOVING LOW-TOPPED SCT SHOWERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE BY WED.

MAY CONSIDER ISSUING A LAKE WIND ADZY FOR POLK/SUMTER AT THE LAST
MINUTE...BUT FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT INLAND WATERWAY WINDS IN THE
HWO.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES AS NE FLOW TO KEEP
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT SLOWLY SINKS TO THE SE THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT DIGS
BACK INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT
AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH
SUN.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT AND INITIAL DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WARM
WATERS...AS WELL AS CURRENT OBS...SUPPORT SCA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. CONDS OVER THE S LEG HAVE NOT REACHED AS OF THIS
WRITING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WILL
LIKELY HOIST EARLY TO BE SAFE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID
WEEK BUT COULD REMAIN AT CAUTION LEVELS INTO THURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH WON'T BE AN ISSUE WITH LOWERED TEMPS...BUT
DISPERSION WILL BE BOTH TODAY AND TUE WITH GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
NO WATCH/WARNING HIGHLITES BUT WILL HEADLINE DISPERSION IN THE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 084 073 084 073 / 50 50 60 40
FMY 086 072 086 072 / 50 50 50 40
GIF 084 072 084 072 / 50 50 60 40
SRQ 085 073 085 073 / 40 50 50 40
BKV 083 072 086 070 / 40 50 60 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM...JLC