12Z Euro and GEM

[PurdueWx80]

They both now make Jeanne a Carolina storm...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4092112!!/

[mascpa]

Looks like it will follow the coast from around north Florida up through NC

[cswitwer]

Sorry if this is a lame amateur's question, but what is the potential wind/cat status of a storm with pressure of 992 or 994? Is there some graph or guidance I could use to check that out?

Thanks!

[yoda]

Probably no more than a Cat 1... winds IMO below 85 mph... but I really don't know.

[gkrangers]

I'm not sure about the pressures on the models.

If they are supposed to be the minimum central pressures, then they are always way off.

But I'm not sure if they represent the minimum central pressure, or another value.

[PurdueWx80]

Global models have much too low a resolution to resolve surface pressures observed in hurricanes. Actually, most numerical models aren't capable of predicting or initializing strong hurricanes. You kind of have to look at them in the relative sense - look for deepening or weakening and the like. Some of these recent runs have showed rapid deepening up the east coast, but this morning's show pretty much steady state storms...more or less.

[depotoo]

From what I am reading it seems the winds are not a factor with this storm - rains are causing all the devastation.

[smashmode]

Doesnt really matter about how weak the winds are...the fact that region is getting ANOTHER rain maker..the ground just can not hold it.

[Stormsfury]

Indications are that JEANNE COULD get as high as a CAT 3 ... but possibly won't be that strong as SW winds aloft should begin to impinge on the system as the recurvature point occurs ... (word of caution, just like what we saw with Karl, there's a window right around the recurvature point, where we've seen some RIC's occur, and then as steering flow (and upper level winds) take hold, the storm generally declines somewhat IF the storm does not travel in nearly the same speed as the shearing winds (IOW, RELATIVE shear is very low) ...

SF