Contrary to NRL...
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 22, 2004
...Lisa moving slowly in the tropical Atlantic...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was located
near latitude 13.7 north...longitude 41.9 west or about 1205
miles...1940 km...west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Lisa is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph
... 9 km/hr. A slow southwest or west-southwestward motion is
expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...13.7 N... 41.9 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Franklin
5pm Lisa-Still 50 mph winds, 997 mb pressure
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Brent
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Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2004
a burst of convection early this afternoon obscured the center...but
that convection is now fading and being blown off by easterly
shearing winds aloft. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt in
accord with an earlier Quikscat pass and a Dvorak classification of
3.0 from TAFB. The intensity forecast is complicated by the
presence of a large tropical disturbance only 300 miles to the east
of Lisa. The upper-flow over this latter feature is more favorable
for development than the shearing flow over Lisa...and it is hard
to imagine both of these systems being tropical cyclones in 48
hours. It is quite possible that Lisa will end up being absorbed
by the eastern disturbance within a couple of days. Should it
survive...upper-level winds could become more favorable in 2-3 days
and the official forecast shows some intensification following the
SHIPS and GFDL guidance. Near the end of the forecast period
however...a strong 200 mb trough is expected to dig deep into the
central tropical Atlantic...which would increase the shear over
whichever of Lisa or the disturbance still exists.
The initial motion estimate is 240/5. Lisa and the disturbance are
beginning to revolve around a common center of rotation south of a
narrow ridge to the south of Karl. The GFS shows the strongest
interaction between the two tropical systems...taking Lisa
southward and eastward before dissipating it. The GFDL...
NOGAPS...and UKMET merely continue a slow southwestward motion for
about two days...keeping Lisa as the stronger system. By the time
this interaction is over...the strong upper-level trough noted
above is expected to impart more of a northward motion by days 4
and 5. The official forecast is in best agreement with the GFDL
guidance.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 13.7n 41.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 13.4n 42.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 13.0n 42.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 24/0600z 12.7n 43.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 24/1800z 12.5n 44.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 25/1800z 14.0n 45.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 26/1800z 17.0n 46.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 27/1800z 20.0n 48.0w 65 kt
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2004
a burst of convection early this afternoon obscured the center...but
that convection is now fading and being blown off by easterly
shearing winds aloft. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt in
accord with an earlier Quikscat pass and a Dvorak classification of
3.0 from TAFB. The intensity forecast is complicated by the
presence of a large tropical disturbance only 300 miles to the east
of Lisa. The upper-flow over this latter feature is more favorable
for development than the shearing flow over Lisa...and it is hard
to imagine both of these systems being tropical cyclones in 48
hours. It is quite possible that Lisa will end up being absorbed
by the eastern disturbance within a couple of days. Should it
survive...upper-level winds could become more favorable in 2-3 days
and the official forecast shows some intensification following the
SHIPS and GFDL guidance. Near the end of the forecast period
however...a strong 200 mb trough is expected to dig deep into the
central tropical Atlantic...which would increase the shear over
whichever of Lisa or the disturbance still exists.
The initial motion estimate is 240/5. Lisa and the disturbance are
beginning to revolve around a common center of rotation south of a
narrow ridge to the south of Karl. The GFS shows the strongest
interaction between the two tropical systems...taking Lisa
southward and eastward before dissipating it. The GFDL...
NOGAPS...and UKMET merely continue a slow southwestward motion for
about two days...keeping Lisa as the stronger system. By the time
this interaction is over...the strong upper-level trough noted
above is expected to impart more of a northward motion by days 4
and 5. The official forecast is in best agreement with the GFDL
guidance.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/2100z 13.7n 41.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 13.4n 42.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 13.0n 42.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 24/0600z 12.7n 43.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 24/1800z 12.5n 44.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 25/1800z 14.0n 45.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 26/1800z 17.0n 46.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 27/1800z 20.0n 48.0w 65 kt
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