18Z GFS is continuing the westward trend of Jeanne tracks ..

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

18Z GFS is continuing the westward trend of Jeanne tracks ..

#1 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:02 pm

Only run out to 60 hours so far, but I'm not pleased with this trend ... :eek:
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#2 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:05 pm

Of course, the ramifications of a west outlier are huge here...
0 likes   
Top
wjs3
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 633
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:57 am

#3 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:06 pm

Link?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#4 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:08 pm

Ugh!

Image

Loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/850_su_loop.shtml
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#5 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:09 pm

WOW!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cinlfla
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 687
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:16 pm
Location: Titusville, Florida on the Spacecoast

#6 Postby cinlfla » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:09 pm

I just looked at the 78 hour 18 utc GFS and it shows a more westward move looks like south Florida I may be wrong though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#7 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:10 pm

Of course ... this is the GFS ... I can take some comfort in that. :-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#8 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:11 pm

I wanna fight back.. :2gunfire:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Ogden, NC
Contact:
Contact Bane

#9 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

Yep, feel glad it is the GFS.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#10 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

IMO... I wouldn't use the 06z/18z GFS... Its kind of stupid tio go by the inbetween runs of the GFS. You should only use the 00z/12z GFS. Watch later when the GFS reverts back...

AGAIN.. IMO! :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NativeFloridaGirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 93
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:07 am
Location: In Exile In Lower Alabama

#11 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

:cry: I don't like that at all.
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:13 pm

If this is the case, Jeanne will just ride up the coast of FL w/ that ridge to her East. We are well within the GFS' good resolution, so at least a little credit should be sent it's way. The 18Z Eta also flipped to this S. FL threat.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:
Contact yoda

#13 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:15 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:If this is the case, Jeanne will just ride up the coast of FL w/ that ridge to her East. We are well within the GFS' good resolution, so at least a little credit should be sent it's way. The 18Z Eta also flipped to this S. FL threat.

Image


I beg to differ. I would only use the GFS resolution w/in 48 hours.. max 72. But I am not a met... so its IMO.
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#14 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:17 pm

What I mean is that through 84 hours, the GFS uses a higher resolution than post-84 hours. High resolution just means that the grid points where the equations are solved are closer together - which is a good thing if you want to make accurate prognostications.
0 likes   
Top
wjs3
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 633
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:57 am

#15 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:18 pm

I'd agree with staying away form the GFS--I mean a day ago, the storm was going east at this point, according to the GFS.

What worries me (for Fla) is the trend of models are going west, west, west.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start to shift even further west given the ETA, NOGAPS and GFS all coming around. I wonder what the next run of the Euro will say...
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#16 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:19 pm

Well, this morning's run has been out for a few hours, and it has the N/S Carolina storm still.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#17 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:20 pm

wjs3 wrote:I'd agree with staying away form the GFS--I mean a day ago, the storm was going east at this point, according to the GFS.

What worries me (for Fla) is the trend of models are going west, west, west.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start to shift even further west given the ETA, NOGAPS and GFS all coming around. I wonder what the next run of the Euro will say...


Yeah, the trend worries me too. Not that I think this is a South Florida event (at least not yet), but another landfall up around where Frances went through would be pretty bad.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jdray
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: NE Florida

#18 Postby jdray » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:23 pm

Looks like a possible Cleo scenario is setting up.
Hit south Florida and ride it into GA.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Could be a David though.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The models that Im more curious about are the BAM models, specifcally BAMM. How accurate is that one? It has Jeanne hitting St. Augustine area.
0 likes   
Top
jpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 692
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:31 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

#19 Postby jpigott » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:25 pm

who is it that said the trend is your friend? Well let me tell you something, sitting here just north of WPB (where Florida east coast sticks her little tushy out at 80W) that trend ain't no friend of mine :x
0 likes   
Top
wjs3
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 633
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 7:57 am

#20 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:26 pm

The BAM models are initialized using the GFS. If the GFS continues to go to the west, I wouldn't be surprised to see the BAMs--all of them--try do the same.


So, to answer your question, all of the BAMs are only as good as the GFS. Though in specific situations (like with shallow storms), they can be good.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, riapal and 241 guests