FXUS62 KMLB 221917
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004
...HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA...
...AUTUMNAL EQUINOX OCCURRED (FALL BEGAN) AT 1230 PM TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE LATE FALL WITH BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION PRODUCING AREAS OF MARINE STRATOCU
AND SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK PVA WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
FLAT STRATOCU TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR BRIEF
SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
THU-FRI...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STRONG 1025MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH
APPROACHING HURRICANE JEANNE WILL KEEP CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A NE FLOW
PATTERN THU...BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY FRI WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED. DRIER AND MORE STABLE EAST NORTHEASTLY FLOW WILL KEEP POPS
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED COASTAL CHANCE GIVEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO
THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWARD
WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE LEFT (OR WEST) OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH TURN JEANNE
NORTHWARD FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT JEANNE
WILL TURN TOWARD FL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND CURVE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. AT EXACTLY WHAT DISTANCE
FROM THE FL EAST COAST WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OUR WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ESP ALG THE COAST AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. WILL LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
TEMPORARILY DISPLACED FROM THE STATE. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE ESP ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW THAT WILL AT LEAST DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK...POPS AND DIURNAL TEMPS APPEAR TO RETURN TO MORE OF A
CLIMO REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 87 72 85 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 72 89 71 87 / 0 20 10 20
MLB 75 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 76 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...RIVER FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM...KELLY/MOSELY
