11PM ..Landfall 34N 78W... Wilmington,NC

[Three Blind Mice]

Well sure hope this changes!

[Three Blind Mice]

Hurricane Jeanne Forecast/Advisory Number 38


Statement as of 03:00Z on September 23, 2004



a tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the central
Bahamas early Thursday. Interests in the northwest Bahamas should
closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.

Hurricane center located near 25.6n 69.3w at 23/0300z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-southwest or 250 degrees at 4 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 966 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
64 kt....... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt.......100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.
12 ft seas..540ne 420se 420sw 600nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.6n 69.3w at 23/0300z
at 23/0000z center was located near 25.8n 69.1w

forecast valid 23/1200z 25.6n 70.0w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 24/0000z 25.5n 71.5w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 24/1200z 25.5n 73.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 25/0000z 26.0n 75.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...120ne 100se 100sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 26/0000z 27.5n 78.6w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 110se 110sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 27/0000z 30.0n 80.5w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 28/0000z 34.0n 78.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.6n 69.3w

next advisory at 23/0900z

forecaster Avila

[Amanzi]

Oh my nerves... that Sunday position is just to close to me!

[BillC]

This forecast is so out of touch with reality. The rationale for not shifting the track further south and west will no doubt be priceless. I think the TPC needs a tad less profile and a tad more courage. People on the Florida east coast will go to bed tonight with a false sense of security ... me thinks.

[x-y-no]

I'm really confused ... She's already at 25.6N moving WSW with no sign of turning, and they never take her south of 25.5N????

Very weird.

[rainstorm]

i agree, i see no reason at all for a ne turn. look for a large west shift at 5am

[BillC]

x-y-no,

I suspect they are attempting to rationalize an out of date projection that they aren't willing to update despite an overwhelming influx of new evidence. Unfortunately, not a unique experience this year.

[BillC]

I just read the 11 PM Discussion from the Tropical Prediction Center ...

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html

Based on their own discussion, by 5 AM they will have to come back further west with their forecast. 'Taint fair ... but it looks like Florida to me.