My forecast on Ivan!(Not Offical)

[Matthew5]

Tropical storm Ivan
This forecast is not Offial please see the nhc!
Advisory 1#
2:30am pst/5:30am est
9-23-2004


Winds 45 mph...Gust to 50 mph
Pressure 1007 millibars/29.74 inches
Movement West-northwest at 15 mph
Location 28.2/91.6

Discussion

...Tropical storm Ivan becomes some what better oreganized as it moves west-northwest...

Over the last few hours, Ivan has developed a large area of convection over 70 percent of its cirulation. The only part of the cirulation that doe's not have convection/exposed is the southern quad. One of the reasons for the oreganizion trend this morning is because of the southwestly wind shear has descreased over the tropical cyclone slightly. Earlier Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night the system was being hit with 20 to 25 knot wind shear. At this moment the tropcal cyclone is moving out of this wind shear or the strongest part of it. Even so the south/southeastern quad is being effected. The current shear over the system is around 15 knots still. While the strongest of the shear is south of 25 north 85 west...This area it is moving into has shear from 10 to 15 knots...In at around 95 west it is as low as 5 to 10 knots. That is favable enough for this cyclone to get a little stronger if it stays over the Gulf of Mexico.

Looking at the water temperatures...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anal.gif

This clearly shows that the seasurface temperatures are very warm...over 30c...So there appears to be more then enough fuel for this system to get stronger.

Because the convection has formed over most of the LLCC. The T numbers out of Sab have went up to 2.5 over 2.5 or 35 knots=40 mph. But over the last hour or so with the blow up of convection near the LLCC. On New Orleans radar it shows that the center core of the tropical cyclone has becomed quit a bit tighter. Plus more oreganized. Which means that the system is oreganizing its wind core around the center. In there is some signs of this system trying to band some of its rainbands around this center. Also to note is most of the wind on this system is on the northern quad of the tropical cyclone. Coastal La has seen this morning winds of 30 to 35 mph. With this being said I'm going ahead in saying 45 mph winds...


Forecast track...I expect the tropical cyclone to keep on its west-northwest track intill its landfall. A large high pressure area is moving the system around its base. Which some model do show kind of a weaking over time. That would slow the tropical cyclone down. But at this time we are not going for it. I'm going for slightly to the right of the main push of the hurricane models. Making landfall near the Bamm in Lbar models show at this area. Or just south of lake charles...That should happen with in the next 18 hours.

I forecast this system if shear stays low like forecasted. In if the system stays off the coast to get to around 55 mph with a pressure of 1002 millibars...

Now 45 mph
6 50 mph
12 50 mph
18 55 mph
24 40 mph Inland
36 Gone!
60 Gone!
72 Gone!

Forecaster Matthew