NEW 94L Model Run

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lilbump3000
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NEW 94L Model Run

#1 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:04 pm

Only one model which takes it into the texas coast.

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#2 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:05 pm

um...crappy model run? Seems like they think he is Ivan. My guess...it forms and hits somewhere between Grand Isle and Apalachicola like Ivan the First
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#3 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:05 pm

I just got looking the Gfdl model shown there is for 9-22-2004...That means this is Ivan Jr...
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#4 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:10 pm

I've been gone for several hours. What is this?
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#5 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:17 pm

It's a blob just east of Ivan. I really don't think it's a separate entity though.

The reason only one model has run is because the Invest is brand new.
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#6 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:20 pm

Not a separate entity? Does that mean it won't become anything?
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#7 Postby Ivanova » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:21 pm

Brent wrote:
It's a blob just east of Ivan. I really don't think it's a separate entity though.




If Ivan absorbs this blob ;) :cool:

WATCH OUT :eek:


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#8 Postby dhweather » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:29 pm

I still won't evacuate for Ivan again!!! :lol:
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#9 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:32 pm

southerngale wrote:Not a separate entity? Does that mean it won't become anything?


It defintely has a shot at development, but nothing is imminent.

Focus on Jeanne. It'll be much more threatening.
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#10 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:37 pm

Oh, I'm definitely watching Jeanne. She's kinda hard to miss. :eek:
But with Jeanne on the other side of Florida and little ol' Ivan over here, I was a bit surprised to see something new to potentially develop in the GOM.
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#11 Postby Ivanova » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:42 pm

Brent wrote:
Focus on Jeanne. It'll be much more threatening.




Yup... this was the Big Z ruse ;) :cool:


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#12 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:44 pm

See Brent- some of us can focus on two... or even three things at once.

This is near my home- I'd like to be able to discuss it on the boards without the posts being dismissed because it's not as "threatening". Things spin up in the gulf very quickly- this invest is only about as far from Houston as Jeanne is from Florida.

Jeanne is on the other side of Florida from me and is of interest- but is not even remotely a potential threat to my area. I will watch her out of curriosity and being a weather lover.

But please- invests are tropical weather too- and in any other season this would be of interest to a lot of people.
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:45 pm

Remember that 94L is now what is called Ivan.
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#14 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:47 pm

Actully scuttlebut is that Ivan is Ivan and 94L was set back in the que- and issued to the Central GOM blob.

Good old Blob.
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#15 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:48 pm

Yep 94L is the new blob and if it holds convection tonight, then we might see a new depression tomorrow.
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#16 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:50 pm

Didn't Joe Bastardi mention something about a seperate Storm from Ivan in the Southern GOM earlier this week? I think he may be right.
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#17 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:51 pm

It's an error. It's been there since yesterday, for Ivan. There's no 94L Invest on the Navy's back up site. http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Also TPC doesn't mention any other disturbances they are watching in the TWO.
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#18 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:52 pm

Well what a bad error for them to make.
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#19 Postby stormie_skies » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:55 pm

Grrrrrr..... :grr: So which one is it? :x
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#20 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:56 pm

To me if its not and invest i think it should be since it looks like it has a chance to become something.
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