While convection around the eye of Jeanne has waned late today...this appears to be the result of upwelling, as Jeanne has slowly performed a loop in the same area for the past 3 1/2 days. The eye remains well defined, and conditions appear favorable for further intensification once the hurricane begins moving westward later tonight and on Friday.
Model guidance remains fairly well clustered....as Jeanne is progged to move west for the next 48 hours before recurvature begins.....bringing the core of Jeanne inland along the Florida southeast coast near West Palm Beach late Friday or Friday evening. As Jeanne moves westward over increasingly warm sea-surface temperatures, and with a forecast excellent outflow enviroment overhead, significant strengthening is likely. I'm currently forecasting Jeanne to pass across the northwestern Bahamas then inland across southeast Florida as a major hurricane.
While I'm currently forecasting Florida landfall intensity as 110 kts (125 mph), please bear in mind that this may be conservative in light of the favorable forecast enviroment....and a landfalling category 4 hurricane (135-140+ mph) is not out of the question.
Once inland, I'm expecting Jeanne to recurve across central and northern Florida into southeast Georgia....then accelerate northeastward across the eastern Carolinas to near the Tidewater area of southeastern Virginia.
Here's my evening forecast track:
Initial position:
THU SEP 23...8 p.m. EDT:
26.0 N....70.4 W.....90 kts (966 mb)
Forecast:
+12 hrs...25.8 N...72.0 N...90 kts
+24 hrs...25.7 N...74.0 W...95 kts
+36 hrs...25.8 N...76.5 W...100 kts (near the northwest Bahamas)
+48 hrs...26.2 N...79.0 W...110 kts (nearing SE Florida)
+60 hrs...27.2 N...81.0 W...100 kts (inland near Lake Okeechobee)
+72 hrs...29.0 N...82.0 W...70 kts
(inland near Ocala, FL)
+96 hrs...33.0 N...81.0 W...50 kts (just inland west of Charleston, SC)
+120 hrs..37.0 N...75.0 W...50 kts (over water east of Norfolk, VA)
+144 hrs..43.0 N...63.0 W...50 kts
(becoming extratropical just south of Nova Scotia)
Evening Jeanne analysis: cat-3 at landfall near KPBI
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SouthernWx
Evening Jeanne analysis: cat-3 at landfall near KPBI
Last edited by SouthernWx on Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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