Models do shift right...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

From the last run.....

[huricanwatcher]

look out williamston.......... jeanne coming to pay a vist....... mark my words!!!!

[cape_escape]

This could be good news for Florida then...right??

[Scorpion]

I take it huricanwatcher is the same guy as hurricane_lover? And no, this is not good news for FL. It has it skimming the coast, so instead of one part of the coastline being damaged the whole coast is.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I take it huricanwatcher is the same guy as hurricane_lover?

hurricane_lover was in miami.....but i guess you could put anything????

[krisj]

Nah, not with 418 posts!

[tronbunny]

oh boy, A98E wants to visit Fidel again!

[cinlfla]

We just might be spared after all if they keep shifting to the right.
Cindy

[cape_escape]

I take it huricanwatcher is the same guy as hurricane_lover? And no, this is not good news for FL. It has it skimming the coast, so instead of one part of the coastline being damaged the whole coast is.

Oh, it couldn't turn enough to miss Florida? At least it doesn't look like a landfall.

[jjfl]

OK...Some people say the models are shifting right....Others are insistant that they are not. Is everyone sure they are looking at the most up to date graphics??? could Mike Watkins or one of the other S2k Forcasters clear this up please?????

[cinlfla]

OK...Some people say the models are shifting right....Others are insistant that they are not. Is everyone sure they are looking at the most up to date graphics??? could Mike Watkins or one of the other S2k Forcasters clear this up please?????

Please do, I am ready to return some of this extra stuff I bought today if I'm not going to need it although I would keep enough in case of another threat. My husband is going out to buy a chain saw after work tomarrow but really if we arn't going to need it I would like to wait till bills are paid after the 1st

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

OK...Some people say the models are shifting right....Others are insistant that they are not. Is everyone sure they are looking at the most up to date graphics??? could Mike Watkins or one of the other S2k Forcasters clear this up please?????

Please do, I am ready to return some of this extra stuff I bought today if I'm not going to need it although I would keep enough in case of another threat. My husband is going out to buy a chain saw after work tomarrow but really if we arn't going to need it I would like to wait till bills are paid after the 1st

These are models....they are not accurate all the time! You need to keep your stuff....because NO ONE knows where this will go!

[Scorpion]

Why are some people suddenly saying this isnt hitting FL?? Look at the models, it certainly is! Granted its not as far south as before, the models for Frances had this even more north. And we all know where Frances came in.

[Zadok]

Are these the current models?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html

[chris_fit]

Where do you people see this as good news for FL?

This is terrible for me in Melbourne, right over my house, then riding up the coast.

Crazy

[stormandan28]

Looks the same as earlier?

[Brent]

IMO, it's WORSE for Florida because instead of going inland, it'll rake the entire coast from say the northern part of Miami up. It'll weaken less too.

[SouthernWx]

A word of caution...those are not the only track models available. The current NOGAPS progs Jeanne across southern Florida (FLL to TPA) then recurves it into the panhandle.
The ECMWF isn't shown on that SFWMD hurricane page either.

There are also several models that are unavailable to the public...including the experimental NASA model, the GFDN, and the FSU superensemble. I haven't seen any of these, but reportedly the NASA track model also forecast Jeanne across southern Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

I always base my forecast on the available guidance, the overall current and forecast synoptic weather pattern, and hurricane climatology; but if the NOGAPS and NASA models are correct, my forecast track is likely too far to the right.

[Scorpion]

Good for inland and west coast, bad for us east coasters.

[Stormsfury]

The grid of tropical models on this are based on the GFS, initially the furthest south, then quickly become the furthest EAST of all the globals ...

this was the 18z tropical models including the NOGAPS, GFDN (same as the GFDL except run on the NOGAPS grid), GFDI (Interpolated GFDL), UKMI (UKMET), etc ... waiting the 00z graphic ...