Latest GFDL run - NO FLORIDA LANDFALL

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logybogy

Latest GFDL run - NO FLORIDA LANDFALL

#1 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:48 am

Image
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yoda
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:50 am

The BAMM is, well, :sleeping:

We may see a shift east.. SLIGHT ONE.. if ECMWF also does as the Trops do...
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#3 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:53 am

They say GFDL starts getting accurate at this range...
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:55 am

Sanibel wrote:They say GFDL starts getting accurate at this range...

The new UKMET is further WEST. By the way The GFS and it's disciples(GFDL,BAMM) have not been accurate at any range this year. IMO.
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#5 Postby MortisFL » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:56 am

GFDL is probably following the GFS model...which unfortunately has had a east bias...remember with Frances.
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#6 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:57 am

Sanibel wrote:They say GFDL starts getting accurate at this range...


That is correct. Within 60 hrs of landfall is when the GFDL is good at TC forecasting. The GFS however, IMO, is not until 48 hours.
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#7 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:57 am

UKMET track is basically exactly the same as Frances.

ugh
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#8 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:59 am

logybogy wrote:UKMET track is basically exactly the same as Frances.

ugh


IMO, I would discount the UKMET.
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#9 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:59 am

which model has been the best with Jeanne over the course of her history?
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#10 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:00 am

logybogy wrote:which model has been the best with Jeanne over the course of her history?


None of them really.
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#11 Postby Dmetal81 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:01 am

They have all been way off at one time or another (or at one point, the BAMM was unsually dead on)... heres the link

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?11
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#12 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:03 am

The latest run of the GFDL is practically a Florida landfall... so close to the entire coast from the Fort Pierce area northward.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Latest GFDL run - NO FLORIDA LANDFALL

#13 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:03 am

logybogy wrote:Image

PLEASE be advised... all of the above models except for the UKMET are GFS biased. The GFS has been as lost as a blind dog in a meat house this year, regarding the strength of high pressure ridges. just my 2 cents.
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#14 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:04 am

IMO, not true Coldfront. Jeanne is about 100 miles off shore... so FL would only get the west sidr of Jeanne (weaker) if the GFDL were to play out.
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#15 Postby MortisFL » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:04 am

Agreed, mobilebay.
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Re: Latest GFDL run - NO FLORIDA LANDFALL

#16 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:05 am

mobilebay wrote:
logybogy wrote:Image

PLEASE be advised... all of the above models except for the UKMET are GFS biased. The GFS has been as lost as a blind dog in a meat house this year, regarding the strength of high pressure ridges. just my 2 cents.


Incorrect.
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ColdFront77

#17 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:05 am

yoda wrote:IMO, not true Coldfront. Jeanne is about 100 miles off shore... so FL would only get the west sidr of Jeanne (weaker) if the GFDL were to play out.

The center over water will keep it from weakening.

I also used the word "practically."
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby Dmetal81 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:06 am

ColdFront77 wrote:The GFDL in the latest model is practically a Florida landfall... so close to the entire coast from the Fort Pierce area northward.

Actually, IMO that track would be more devasting overall than an actual land fall. Its a worse case nightmare scenario for the southeast coast. She would be able to ride all the way up (25-90 miles off shore) and maintain strength alot longer (Gulfstream!). Although it keeps the right front quandrant off shore, it would hardly matter with over 1000 miles of coastline affected.
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#19 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:07 am

That's my point, Dmetal. Also, the "weaker side" isn't weak to an extreme.
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#20 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:07 am

What is incorrect yoda? Those are all GFS biased except for the UKMET.
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