jeanne updates (every 3 hours)

[Derek Ortt]

are available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004.html

this is becoming routine, just another day with a hurricane watch

[logybogy]

do you think southeast florida is under the gun here, Derek or is the threat greater to the north?

[Derek Ortt]

i'm leaning more to the south with this one. i cannot see a turn until at least 79W

[BlueNole]

i'm leaning more to the south with this one. i cannot see a turn until at least 79W

Derek, "more to the south" meaning where?

Thanks,

[jlauderdal]

i'm leaning more to the south with this one. i cannot see a turn until at least 79W

Derek, "more to the south" meaning where?

Thanks,

well its basically due east of fort lauderdale so if it keeps chugging west as forecast and gets to at least 79w it would be about 60 miles offshore of fort lauderdale before a turn took place according to dereks forecast. it could go even farter west than 79 which makes it a dade, broward, palm beach deal

[Derek Ortt]

further south meaning I'm expecting s fla to at leats experience hurricane force winds (at least in part of Broward)

[Deenac813]

further south meaning I'm expecting s fla to at leats experience hurricane force winds (at least in part of Broward)

Oh Derek, you were my last hope I had a bad feeling about this Jeanne to begin with.

[Derek Ortt]

new update is available now (though only thing that has really changed are the coordinates)

[DESTRUCTION5]

new update is available now (though only thing that has really changed are the coordinates)

Link please Derek...You the best!

[Collier Canetracker]

Derek,

Your forecast from last night showed some southward movement to bring Jeanne down into the 25's N. Do you still think we'll see some southward movement or do you now look for due west all the way to 79 or 80W?

[Derek Ortt]

we could still see a southward jog to this storm yet. there is decent northerly flow on the WV

also, the link is in the first post, or just visit the nwhhc homepage (I cannot possibly post every single update here, thats asking a bit much)

[Collier Canetracker]

Thanks Derek. I go to your site all the time, and it's great. Does your comment mean that you are sticking with all the projected future track oordinates at the present time?

[Foladar]

Hey Derek, think Homestead will NOT see Hurricane Force winds? thanks man, your great.

[yoda]

Hey Derek, think Homestead will NOT see Hurricane Force winds? thanks man, your great.

Homestead will not see HF winds... winds will be near 60 at best.

[DESTRUCTION5]

we could still see a southward jog to this storm yet. there is decent northerly flow on the WV

also, the link is in the first post, or just visit the nwhhc homepage (I cannot possibly post every single update here, thats asking a bit much)

Holy Crap I did not see it..So sorry...

[fci]

Derek:
All the TV guys and Radio sound like the storm will be in about the same spot as Frances with Palm Beach county getting a brush with Hurricane force winds or not reaching past Tropical Storm force.
None of them really mention the real possibility of landfall south of Palm Beach county .
Are you respectfully disagreeing with them and thinking Broward or Dade County?

[Derek Ortt]

i'm suggesting they need to stop following the GFS model as it has been GFS for quite a long time now (this is the same model that had a 200mb inverted trough over Hurricane Isabel when it was a cat 5)

[yoda]

i'm suggesting they need to stop following the GFS model as it has been GFS for quite a long time now (this is the same model that had a 200mb inverted trough over Hurricane Isabel when it was a cat 5)

They are probably following the GFDL rather than the GFS, which is better in this time period.

[Derek Ortt]

and the gfdl has the gfs initial conditions, which have been so bad that we aren't even considering a model that is run off of the GFS.

GFDN is not widely available, but it is the GFS off of the NOGAPS initial conditions. This model has been MUCH better

[yoda]

and the gfdl has the gfs initial conditions, which have been so bad that we aren't even considering a model that is run off of the GFS.

GFDN is not widely available, but it is the GFS off of the NOGAPS initial conditions. This model has been MUCH better

But the GFDL is the model used here. It is considered to be at its best in track forecasting w/in 60 hours. Now the GFDN, that is good. What is the track with the GFDN?