My reasoning regarding hurricane Jeanne has changed little overnight. Latest satellite imagery indicates the hurricane is moving west at a faster forward speed, and I expect this motion to continue until near time of landfall....which I forecast along the Florida east coast between Fort Lauderdale and Stuart....most likely in the West Palm Beach and Jupiter areas.
Jeanne is also beginning to intensify again, as the hurricane moves over warmer waters and away from the cool pool it meandered over yesterday caused by upwelling.
It is likely Jeanne will impact both the northwestern Bahamas and Florida east coast as a major hurricane.
My latest track and intensity forecast:
Current:
10 a.m. (14z) FRI SEP 24, 2004
26.1 N - 72.3 W....85 kts (969 mb)
Forecast:
+12 hr...26.1 N - 73.6 W...90 kts
+24 hr...26.0 N - 75.5 W...95 kts
(approaching Great Abaco Island, Bahamas)
+36 hr...26.1 N - 77.8 W...105 kts
(just south of Grand Bahama Island)
+48 hr...26.8 N - 80.0 W...110 kts
(near Palm Beach, Florida)
+60 hr...28.0 N - 81.5 W...75 kts
(inland just SW of Orlando, Florida)
+72 hr...29.8 N - 82.1 W...60 kts
(inland 30 miles SW of Jacksonville, Florida)
+96 hr...33.8 N - 80.5 W...50 kts
(inland just SE of Columbia, South Carolina)
+120 hr..39.0 N - 73.0 W...50 kts
(back over water about 130 miles
SSE of New York City, NY)
+144 hr..44.0 N - 61.0 W...50 kts
(extratropical just southeast of Nova Scotia)
Friday 10:30 a.m. Jeanne forecast analysis
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