Go back to morning of Charley landfall..model huggers.

[TPACane04]

NHC extended the Warnings NORTH of Tampa that morning when the models kept depicting a probable landfall around Cedar Key or other point N of Tampa...and we all know what happened around 4pm...Charley hits 65 miles S of Tampa!

point being that even inside 48 hours, models can be deceptive...I wish I could remeber which models kept showing Charley going N of Tampa when that is not what happened...

I am sure the NHC will go with the reality of what they see, with ridge strength, Jeanne speed and they have many times gona AGAINST model consensus, if conditions and climatology dictated as such.

the 5pm advisory will be fun for sure...

[inotherwords]

Charley hit within NHC's predicted cone. Period.

[Josephine96]

Guess if it hits in the cone.. then it's a success right lol

[MortisFL]

That was a pretty big cone

[inotherwords]

There were warnings up along the entire coast. It was only the overzealous who were predicting Tampa or believing the line was the actual track. No matter how much the NHC tells you not to believe the line, some of you still want so badly do do that, and then bash the NHC for not being "accurate." Give me a freaking break. I love all the Monday morning quarterbacking going on all the time in this forum, it's really a riot.

[TPACane04]

the topic is on MODELS and model hugging...not the NHC, per se.

in the example cited, models were trying to show a more N track than what happened...

models this afternoon trying to curve Jeanne away from FL coast...that is the lesson, no NHC bashing.

[MortisFL]

Same thing with Frances...GFDL/GFS models showed it moving north too soon, looks to be the same case with Jeanne.

[hookemfins]

First off, the skinny line is meaningless. The storm hit where he was supposed to hit.

Now from what I remember the ETA was the only model at 12z that showed the right turn into Ft Myres area. However, that model also weakend Charlies just before landfall.