Is the NHC in denial?.......

[dixiebreeze]

It seems from the 5 p.m. Discussion, the NHC still believes Jeanne just might turn N. prior to landfall, thinking the ridge isn't quite as broad-based as some models indicate. Thoughts?

[calidoug]

Sigh... more NHC bashing from the armchair hobbyists.

[dixiebreeze]

Not bashiing at all. I have the highest respect for the folks at the NHC. Just wondering if they are hoping beyond hope, so to speak.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

the NHC has been very good with forecasting things lately, i guess we will wait and see.

[PurdueWx80]

Well hmm...they aren't following the conventions of the GFS or any of it's underlings. They have maintained a central-FL landfall for several cycles now. It's hard to be in denial of something that hasn't happened yet, so your terminology is faulty here.

[PurdueWx80]

Not bashiing at all. I have the highest respect for the folks at the NHC. Just wondering if they are hoping beyond hope, so to speak.

Hoping beyond hope...that's exactly what highly educated scientists do...you're exactly right.

[Matthew5]

The ridge over all the tropical cyclones that where in this area this season have been stronger then the models have shown. I'm thinking a south or central Florida landfall. The recon reports of a westward movement...I would not be surprized if this went slight south of due some time with in the next 12 hours...Expect this hurricane to become a cat3...

The nhc loves to fellow its Gfs/Gfdl...The Gfs no appears to be more to the left so I think the nhc will shift to the west...As for bashing the nhc there is no bashing the nhc from me only facts...

[jpigott]

the NHC is playing the middle, some of the recent models suggest more N and E. However, reality seems to be a little different (current synoptics, and latest recon indicate increased forward speed and a ridge that isn't going anywhere). All you have to do is look at the 5 discussion, they all but admit they are taking the middle road

[Stormcenter]

the NHC has been very good with forecasting things lately, i guess we will wait and see.

Yes they've been very good 72 hours out. They had
Ivan making landfall in 72 hours on the AL/FL on
Monday September 13th!

[djti]

they arent really taking the middle road as of now.......their CURRENT forecast discounts the NOGAPS.....they are sticking with the ukmet/gfdl for now.

[dixiebreeze]

the NHC is playing the middle, some of the recent models suggest more N and E. However, reality seems to be a little different (current synoptics, and latest recon indicate increased forward speed and a ridge that isn't going anywhere). All you have to do is look at the 5 discussion, they all but admit they are taking the middle road

That's closer to what I meant, but I didn't say it very well. Thanks.

[jpigott]

djti - do i have to cut and paste the discussion. read the 5 oclock discussion. He mentions that models are shifting N and E, but yet he isn't shifting the NHC track (this statement impliedly would justify a N and E shift) Near the end of the discussion he mentions consistency of NOGAPS and how it has more properly handled the ridge and he also mentions the NOAA jet discovering 1)strong ridge 2)that's still building westward. Yet he doesn't shift the track south and west. He keeps track same, bwtn these 2 lines of thought. I think this is very middle of the road and smart if you ask me (however, given the more densely populated S coast of Fl and the fact that if impacted it would be sooner rather than later, i would have shifted a little south of what he did, but hey what do i know, i'm not a met)

[tronbunny]

The discussion is by our hero, Stewart.
He describe the synoptic reasoning and why they stay conservative- usually to follow some of the model guidance, and again why they won't neccesarily follow the guidance like puppy dogs.
As a matter of fact, this particular discussion has a very dark or rather a more concerned tone than I'm used to..
anyone else catch that "vibe"?

[wxman57]

Well hmm...they aren't following the conventions of the GFS or any of it's underlings. They have maintained a central-FL landfall for several cycles now. It's hard to be in denial of something that hasn't happened yet, so your terminology is faulty here.

Actually, the NHC track is almost exactly on the GFS track of the past 4-6 runs. The GFS brings the center to the coast near Ft. Pierce, moves it straight NNW along the eastern coast, then NE along the Carolina coasts. But the GFDL has been a little right of the NHC track of late.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I remember reading someone's post that mentioned that the NHC forecasting gets a lot better as a storm gets nearer the US coast because there's a lot more data to work with. From what I've seen, it's true. The NHC is extremely good at forecasting within 3 days of US landfall.

[JoanFlorida]

tron bunny...ditto rather dark discussion...perhaps began with perceived need to defend nhc?

I just want an answer to the million $$ question: Should I board up my windows in the rain tomorrow? I'm in west-by-God Melbourne...

[tronbunny]

In melbourne, yes definitely put them up.
I think you'll have time until noon or just after.
I put up the 3 smallest tonight.
I'll complete the last 5 "huge" ones tomorrow between 9-noon.

[wxman57]

tron bunny...ditto rather dark discussion...perhaps began with perceived need to defend nhc?

I just want an answer to the million $$ question: Should I board up my windows in the rain tomorrow? I'm in west-by-God Melbourne...

That would be a very wise decision. TS-force winds due to arrive late tomorrow night. Hurricane-force winds after sunrise Sunday.

[Sean in New Orleans]

At least it isn't a major hurricane, and it doesn't look particularly impressive this evening. I think most of Florida will do fine without an evacuation.

[gkrangers]

At least it isn't a major hurricane, and it doesn't look particularly impressive this evening. I think most of Florida will do fine without an evacuation.

Ivan really spoiled you..