NHC forecasters ...

siobhan222 · #1 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:08 am

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mobilebay · #2 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:11 am

Are you suggesting that they are stubburn to make drastic changes to there forecast despite evidence of the contrary? NAH. :lol:

#3 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:15 am

Funny mobilebay.

Sometimes they appear to not believe what they are seeing, but what the models are saying.

Jeanne's plowing due West.

siobhan222 · #4 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:18 am

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mobilebay · #5 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 4:22 am

I'm not trying to rehash old flames here. However, when Ivan was in the Gulf they (NHC) kept saying a Appalachicola Landfall when almost all guidence point to the Pensacola area. They used that exact same quote that is in this mornings Discussion, "NHC track is east of model guidence". When I ripped them for not putting the track where it should. I promptly had my post deleted. At one time they where 150 miles East of any Guidence. That is giving false security to people that are under the gun, just to pretect their numbers. NOte to whoever deleted my post- I was correct and so where the models. It's not bashing if it is the truth. Peace.

siobhan222 · #6 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:26 am

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Tri-State_1925 · #7 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:44 am

Well, when Charley was clearly strengthening over Cuba, they didn't warn the average joe very well...and I was all over them for that. I'm not going to complain about the job they did with Ivan and Frances though. This could be a similar scenario to Charley and everyone needs to know what's going on, not just the people here. The average Joe has to understand how strong this storm can become. Saying that this storm could be a major hurricane and that's it is not acceptable at this point. There's no doubt that a 105 mph storm that's rapidly strengthening will be a major hurricane. That's what they did with Charley...and then you saw people sticking it out in Fort Myers or evacuating only a couple hours prior to landfall when the storm all of a sudden was 145 mph. What people need to know is the max this storm can reach. Have some guts to put it in the public advisory.

#8 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 7:51 am

I am scared for PBC.
They aren't ready for this due west course.
:eek:

siobhan222 · #9 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:03 am

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inotherwords · #10 Postby **inotherwords** » Sat Sep 25, 2004 8:17 am

We were NOT prepared for this here in PBC.

Well, you should have been, as you've been in the NHC cone for at least three or four days. If you have only paid attention to the line, that's your fault, not theirs. Also, the landfall projection has always been up around Ft. Pierce/Vero area, which is really close to your area. Why are you surprised now that you have to prepare?

Also, nobody is good at predicting exact intensity. Even the NHC says this is something that they can't predict with any degree of accuracy. They can only give indications of conditions and whether they're favorable for strengthening or not. However, for the past two days, their reports have indicated that this storm would probably intensify before landfall. Did you miss that? Are you reading the discussion section?

I don't know why people expect miracles. Hurricane forecasting is still far from an exact science. If you expect someone to tell you exactly where it's going to come in at exactly what mph, and at exactly what time, you're really deluding yourself.

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