Should this really be called north of west?

[Possum Trot]

11:00pm 27.2 North
12:00am 27.2 North
3:00am 27.4 North
4:00am 27.4 North
5:00am 27.4 North

From NHC advisories and updates.

[Matthew5]

Looks pretty close to west to me!

[yoda]

The initial motion is 280/11. Water vapor imagery indicates that
Jeanne is approaching the western end of the deep layer ridge now
centered just east of Cape Hatteras. This should allow Jeanne to
begin its northward turn within 12-24 hr...followed by eventual
recurvature into the westerlies. All guidance agrees on the
general scenario...although there remains some spread as to the
timing of the turn. The NOGAPS remains the farthest west...taking
Jeanne across Apalachee Bay and just west of Tallahassee...while
the GFS is farthest to the right...taking Jeanne northward through
Gainesville. The official forecast will split the difference
between these two extremes...calling for Jeanne to pass near Tampa
then briefly emerge over Apalachee Bay before making a final
landfall in the Florida Panhandle. This should be followed by a
northward and northeastward motion across the southeastern United
States into the Atlantic.


from 5 AM NHC DISCUSSION...

[Possum Trot]

I understand that the NHC continues to forecast a NW turn, and I sure that at some point in time they will be correct. My question refers to the NHC assertion that Jeanne is moving north of west when it simply does not appear to be true by their own data. Is there some weird meteorological rule in which due west is at times not due west?

[yoda]

I understand that the NHC continues to forecast a NW turn, and I sure that at some point in time they will be correct. My question refers to the NHC assertion that Jeanne is moving north of west when it simply does not appear to be true by their own data. Is there some weird meteorological rule in which due west is at times not due west?

As they say in their 5 PM advisory.. Jeanne is moving at 280 degrees... which is like WWWNW... so she is starting to turn... but yes it still is west for the next few hours before we start seeing the actual turn...

[Greg]

First the crash of the dot coms.
Next, the crash of the dot govs!

[yoda]

First the crash of the dot coms.
Next, the crash of the dot govs!

I see...

[KWT]

I think it's heading more westwards then nrth,and that confirms it really!

[yoda]

I think it's heading more westwards then nrth,and that confirms it really!

For now... it will turn w/in the next 6 hours...

[KWT]

so do I although I personally feel it'll do what nogaps thinks it'll do,as nogaps have been the best handling the high and I see no reason to think otherwise,yet.

[yoda]

so do I although I personally feel it'll do what nogaps thinks it'll do,as nogaps have been the best handling the high and I see no reason to think otherwise,yet.

NOGAPS is too far west... why may you ask? Because as you can see on WV... Jeanne is reaching the end of her west track per the high pressure... so a WNW to a NW movement is likely w/in the next 6 hours.

"The NOGAPS remains the farthest west...taking
Jeanne across Apalachee Bay and just west of Tallahassee...while
the GFS is farthest to the right...taking Jeanne northward through
Gainesville. The official forecast will split the difference
between these two extremes...calling for Jeanne to pass near Tampa
then briefly emerge over Apalachee Bay before making a final
landfall in the Florida Panhandle."

NHC says that and I agree.

[Possum Trot]

I've never heard of WWWNW before.

Due west is roughly 269.5 to 275.5 degrees.
280 degrees is West by North.
See: http://education.qld.gov.au/curriculum/ ... cobox.html

Yoda, you continue to miss my point. A heading of 27.4 North that does not deviate cannot be 280 degrees.

[KWT]

that's a good point and I didn't see that,thanks Yoda.

[Greg]

so do I although I personally feel it'll do what nogaps thinks it'll do,as nogaps have been the best handling the high and I see no reason to think otherwise,yet.

NOGAPS is too far west... why may you ask? Because as you can see on WV... Jeanne is reaching the end of her west track per the high pressure... so a WNW to a NW movement is likely w/in the next 6 hours.

"The NOGAPS remains the farthest west...taking
Jeanne across Apalachee Bay and just west of Tallahassee...while
the GFS is farthest to the right...taking Jeanne northward through
Gainesville. The official forecast will split the difference
between these two extremes...calling for Jeanne to pass near Tampa
then briefly emerge over Apalachee Bay before making a final
landfall in the Florida Panhandle."

NHC says that and I agree.

I See

[yoda]

I've never heard of WWWNW before.

Due west is roughly 269.5 to 275.5 degrees.
280 degrees is West by North.
See: http://education.qld.gov.au/curriculum/ ... cobox.html

Yoda, you continue to miss my point. A heading of 27.4 North that does not deviate cannot be 280 degrees.

Yes, I know there is no such thing as WWWNW. I was just using that to make a point. Yes, you are correct.

Well, NHC says 280 degrees.. if we look back a bit, a movement north of .3 degrees is shown since the 11 PM advisory...

03 GMT 09/26/04 27.2N 80.0W 115 951 Category 3 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/26/04 27.4N 81.1W 110 955 Category 2 Hurricane


So we will see...

[yoda]

so do I although I personally feel it'll do what nogaps thinks it'll do,as nogaps have been the best handling the high and I see no reason to think otherwise,yet.

NOGAPS is too far west... why may you ask? Because as you can see on WV... Jeanne is reaching the end of her west track per the high pressure... so a WNW to a NW movement is likely w/in the next 6 hours.

"The NOGAPS remains the farthest west...taking
Jeanne across Apalachee Bay and just west of Tallahassee...while
the GFS is farthest to the right...taking Jeanne northward through
Gainesville. The official forecast will split the difference
between these two extremes...calling for Jeanne to pass near Tampa
then briefly emerge over Apalachee Bay before making a final
landfall in the Florida Panhandle."

NHC says that and I agree.

I See

I see you as well!!

But what do you not see? Do you disagree with what I posted?

[Possum Trot]

Data points accumulated in the future have no bearing on a heading asserted in the present. When the NHC asserts the current heading of a storm, that must be based on accumulated data alone. Otherwise we are talking about forecasts and not current heading.

One possible variable is how many data points one averages to derive general heading. If we go back far enough we can justify a heading for Jeanne anywhere between due west and north west. So lets consider data points relevant to the current forecast track. Jeanne began to deviate from the forecast track betwen 11:00 and 12:00. Since that time, the data clearly indicates Jeanne has been moving due west. This is not an opinion. What continues to confuse me is that the scientists at NHC are misrepresenting their own data.