2004 Hurricane Season: Additional Storms Before It Ends

[donsutherland1]

Even as there are indications that the Cape Verde season might be concluded or concluding (one can refer to DT's post at WWBB on this matter), I believe that there will be some additional tropical activity before the curtain falls on the 2004 Hurricane Season.

• Prior to 2004, there were 3 seasons that saw 3 major hurricanes make U.S. landfall (1909, 1954, 1955). Two saw 2 named storms form October 1 or later. One witnessed 3.

• Prior to 2004, there were 7 seasons that saw 6 or more major hurricanes develop (1916, 1926, 1950, 1955, 1961, 1964, 1996). In those seasons, the average figure for named storms that developed October 1 or later was 3.6. However, there was some wide variability:

Least: 2, 1955, 1964
Most: 6, 1950

• In seasons in which a number of the key global indices were similar to those of this season (especially ENSO indices and QBO), the average figure for named storms that developed October 1 or later came to 4.3. All of those seasons saw 2 or more named storms develop October 1 or later.

Consequently, I believe the 2004 hurricane season will likely see 2-4 more named storms before it finally concludes.

As for my pre-season outlook, it has fared reasonably well:

Named Storms: 13 Actual: 12
Hurricanes: 8 Actual: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3 Actual: 6
Landfalls: 5 (but concern that this might be too low) Actual: 7
Landfalling Major Hurricanes: At least 1 Actual: 3

[mascpa]

I know you're probably correct, but I really need a break. First Frances left me with no power for a week and I had to have 18 trees taken out. Then rain for three days thanks to the remnants of Ivan. Now Jeanne. Lots of flooding, roads under water, about 70% of my property under water, no power ... again!

[tronbunny]

1950---6 after oct 1.
Oh Good God, NO!

[inotherwords]

Fortunately history shows that there were only a small handful of major landfalling storms in FL in Oct/Nov in the last 100 years. But as we just witnessed, history ain't worth squat in hurricane season as far as Mother Nature is concerned!

[Sanibel]

Though unscientific, the cool air that punched over the Gulf behind Ivan was early. In my observations of weather trends early unseasonable changes are often followed by 'rebounds' of the opposite weather. In this case it is possible warm conditions will set up over the West Atlantic Basin/Caribbean in October. Not guaranteed of course. It is possible the GOM lost SST's in the last weeks, but today the sun is nice and hot here.


The West Caribbean tends to pool with what I call "juiced" tropical air at this time from full-season warming of the Caribbean Sea along with heavily humid airmasses drifting on the equatorial flows from the Amazon. Mitch being a good example.


I offer no prediction on fall 2004 storms because they would be pure speculation. The odds of Frances and Jeanne landfalling in the same spot were very remote - but it did happen.

Did any of those statistical seasons have NO October storms?

[Stormcenter]

Even as there are indications that the Cape Verde season might be concluded or concluding (one can refer to DT's post at WWBB on this matter), I believe that there will be some additional tropical activity before the curtain falls on the 2004 Hurricane Season.

• Prior to 2004, there were 3 seasons that saw 3 major hurricanes make U.S. landfall (1909, 1954, 1955). Two saw 2 named storms form October 1 or later. One witnessed 3.

• Prior to 2004, there were 7 seasons that saw 6 or more major hurricanes develop (1916, 1926, 1950, 1955, 1961, 1964, 1996). In those seasons, the average figure for named storms that developed October 1 or later was 3.6. However, there was some wide variability:

Least: 2, 1955, 1964
Most: 6, 1950

• In seasons in which a number of the key global indices were similar to those of this season (especially ENSO indices and QBO), the average figure for named storms that developed October 1 or later came to 4.3. All of those seasons saw 2 or more named storms develop October 1 or later.

Consequently, I believe the 2004 hurricane season will likely see 2-4 more named storms before it finally concludes.

As for my pre-season outlook, it has fared reasonably well:

Named Storms: 13 Actual: 12
Hurricanes: 8 Actual: 7
Major Hurricanes: 3 Actual: 6
Landfalls: 5 (but concern that this might be too low) Actual: 7
Landfalling Major Hurricanes: At least 1 Actual: 3

You didn't do well on the major hurricanes but otherwise good
job.

[Stephanie]

I certainly hope that Mother Nature will buck the trend again and not follow those statistics you show Don and not have any storms! It's been a strange year in every way imaginable.

[donsutherland1]

Sanibel,

None of those statistical seasons had no October storms.

[Stormsfury]

You didn't do well on the major hurricanes but otherwise good
job.

Don and I had the same numbers for the 2004 outlook, and I don't think anyone can predict the amount of major hurricanes that developed this year ... I knew that we would have better developed systems this year, and why I went high on the # of hurricanes, but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger on the number of major hurricanes, something, in hindsight that I regret ...

SF

[Stephanie]

You didn't do well on the major hurricanes but otherwise good
job.

Don and I had the same numbers for the 2004 outlook, and I don't think anyone can predict the amount of major hurricanes that developed this year ... I knew that we would have better developed systems this year, and why I went high on the # of hurricanes, but couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger on the number of major hurricanes, something, in hindsight that I regret ...

SF

No regrets SF! Like you said, probably noone would've predicted that number of major hurricanes!

[donsutherland1]

Stormcenter,

I underestimated the number of major hurricanes quite badly. I had erred on the side of conservatism and this led me to understate both the number of major hurricanes and landfalls. There were some analogs that were more aggressive, including the record-setting 1950 one.

Unfortunately, at the time I made my estimate near the end of April, I chose not to go with the extremes in those areas and this season (just the 8th on record with 6 or more major hurricanes) is one where the extremes prevailed.

One year that also came up in the mix was 1955. However, given the rarity of seasons with multiple major landfalling hurricanes, I expressed the idea of at least one (first season since 1999) but did not go for 2 or more. All but one of the six primary analogs I used had one or more major landfalling hurricanes.

Overall, after the season, I'll try to reassess so that maybe next year, if extremes are likely, I might be able to make a better judgment in that area.

[donsutherland1]

SF,

That makes two of us who regret not calling for more major hurricanes.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

I'd be very suprised if we didn't see at least 2 more named storms before the season ends. However, this does not mean that any additional storms will make U.S. landfall (I hope none make landfall anywhere).

However, what I would be concerned about is if one sees new storms meet the following criteria:

• Develop at or below 14° North and at or west of 80° West
• Take a northwest track initially following their development

These are the kind of storms that can pose a threat of landfall, particularly to Florida. Such landfalls do not always occur, but they are possibilities.

One such storm that made a Florida landfall is Hurricane Isbell (1964):


One that missed is Hurricane Lili (1996):

[AussieMark]

It was October 3, 1964 when Hilda hit Louisiana.



Geeze,
US got 2 Major Hurricane strikes that October.

[Innotech]

if I might ask...why do people even make these predictions other than for entertainment? They are hardly scientific, because no amount of science can predict the weather 5 months from July. Its just a total educated guess and hterefore pointless.

[alicia-w]

This model shows some activity starting in about 72 hours or so?

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

[donsutherland1]

Innotech,

One could ask that question of those in a wide range of industries who engage in long-range planning. Why do stock analysts estimate a stock's potential 5 years down the road (Value Line)? Why do energy analysts estimate the price of a barrel of oil more than a year down the road?

How accurate are these forecasts? Let's see, prior to the stock market's decline beginning in late 2000-early 2001 (depending on the index in question), some 80% of analysts' suggestions were "buy" recommendations. At the beginning of this year, not many were forecasting the price of oil to be flirting with $50 per barrel.

Turning points in any field are extremely difficult to forecast be they economic cycles or meteorological pattern changes. But that does not deter those from trying to forecast these developments or from the effort to learn more about them. Why do people carry on with trying to forecast such events and improve such forecasts?

They do so because there is a market for such information. Even though there is a large degree of risk, especially as time horizons are pushed farther into the future, those who are able to use such information in scenario planning, among other tasks, can at least be better prepared. Contingency planning can both increase readiness for disasters, cut the costs of responding too late, etc.

As for seasonal forecasting--tropical and otherwise--clearly, there are many variables that shape the outcomes, and not all of those factors are reflected in the existing global indices nor are they all known. That's why analogs are employed in addition to computer models. While the picture offered is far from perfect, it is also far better than what was available even a decade ago.

Dr. Bill Gray's work in forecasting tropical activity has been proved by the test of time.

In my view, it is better to push the horizons, take risks, even fail on the road to learning, than to dismiss an effort as futile and not worth pursuing. That's the spirit that has driven exploration, scientific progress (including in meteorology), innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Finally, with regard to the current tropical season, the signals of an active season were overwhelming. Of years with similar global indices, a remarkable 13 of 13 seasons saw 11 or more named storms. Against such overwhelming evidence, I beg to differ that the fact that the 2004 season proved to be an active one is mere coincidence that could not have been foreseen.

Not surprisingly, even as some were all but ready to write off the season by mid-to-late July after no storms had developed, things quickly changed. Why? Because, there is a good relationship between the global indices and tropical activity. In other words, tropical activity is a product of a number of factors ranging from SSTAs to ENSO, etc. It is not a wholly independent phenomenon.

[dhweather]

It's of interest that since the mid 90's, Dr. Gray has been referring to us entering a new period of increased tropical cyclone activity, such as in the 50's and 60's, then a relative "lull" in the 70's, 80's, and early 90's.

That's gonna be a tough pill to swallow if this trend lasts a few more years.

[donsutherland1]

On September 27, 2004, I noted that based on the global indices:

I believe the 2004 hurricane season will likely see 2-4 more named storms before it finally concludes.

Overall, the examination of global indices and past seasons with similar setups proved quite helpful. Barring the development of any additional storms prior to January 1, 3 additional storms (Tropical Storms Matthew, Nicole, and Otto) developed prior to the close of the 2004 season.

Final numbers:

Named storms: 15
Hurricanes: 9
Major Hurricanes: 6
U.S. Landfalls: 8
U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls: 3

[Stormsfury]

I have to note that all three of the latter storms that formed after don's original posting date (Sept. 27th, 2004), that all three has their origins from non-tropical entities (although, Matthew was a bit enhanced from a tropical wave interacting with a non-tropical disturbance ...), something that I alluded to in other threads ("barring any subtropical, or non-tropical origin developments, the 2004 season will likely close w/out another named system) ... I was almost right ...

SF